Number of new car registrations increased in 2023
More cars will be registered again in 2023 than in the previous year. However, even though the figures are recovering, the pre-corona level has not yet been reached. The outlook for the new year is gloomy in view of the expired subsidies for electric cars - and because of the ever-increasing competition from China.
More new cars were registered in Germany last year. According to figures from the Federal Motor Transport Authority, 2.84 million new cars were registered on German roads in the past twelve months - an increase of 7.3 percent. The number of new commercial registrations in particular rose sharply, while slightly fewer private cars were newly registered than in 2022. Two thirds of all new registrations were company cars. Around 524,000 of the newly registered cars were pure electric cars - an increase of 11.4% compared to 2022. The share of pure electric cars in all new car registrations was 18.4% (2022: 17.7%).
"The surprising complete end to the state purchase premium will lead to a decline in new electric car registrations this year," predicted Felix Gall, Head of Mobility at management consultancy EY, for the coming months. "The market for electric cars is not yet standing on its own two feet, but is dependent on state subsidies. Where there are no subsidies and no investment in a good charging infrastructure, only a few electric cars will be sold," says Gall.
Stopping the e-car premium creates uncertainty
The German government had actually planned to grant a purchase premium of up to 4,500 euros for new electric cars until the end of 2023. In addition, the manufacturers were to receive half of the bonus, i.e. up to 2250 euros. On January 1, 2024, the state bonus was to be reduced to 3000 euros and then expire at the end of 2024. Because the federal government had to correct its budget planning, this subsidy was abruptly discontinued in mid-December.
However, numerous car manufacturers subsequently announced that they would pay the premiums themselves. For many buyers, the price of a new vehicle has therefore not changed, at least for the time being. However, these financial offers from manufacturers will not remain in place permanently.
A comparison between December 2022 and December 2023 shows that consumers are responding to other subsidies, in some cases significantly: According to the KBA, around 54,7000 pure electric cars were newly registered in the last month of 2023, compared to almost twice as many in the same month last year. At the end of 2022, however, the purchase of pure electric cars was even more strongly subsidized by the state, many interested parties brought forward their purchases and thus ensured exceptionally high new registration figures.
Whether the abrupt stop to subsidies in mid-December will have similar consequences will only become clear in the coming months. EY expert Gall predicted that the electric car segment will fail to drive growth in the coming months. The new car market as a whole will stagnate at the current low level - and thus well below pre-coronavirus levels. "It's quite possible that 2024 will be a lost year for the automotive industry."
Tough competition from China
Car production in Germany has grown significantly faster than the number of new registrations, namely by 18% to 4.1 million cars. However, according to the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), production was still 12% lower than in 2019, the year before the crisis. According to the VDA, 3.1 million cars from German plants were exported (up 17%).
The largest car market in the world is China, where the market grew last year as expected. In December, deliveries of passenger cars to end customers rose by nine percent to 2.36 million, and by six percent to 21.7 million for the year as a whole, according to the industry association PCA (China Passenger Car Association) in Beijing, based on preliminary figures.
China is also the most important single market for the German manufacturers Volkswagen (including its subsidiaries Audi and Porsche), BMW and Mercedes-Benz. However, competition is becoming increasingly fierce, especially for mass manufacturers. Chinese manufacturers are giving their competitors a hard time, especially when it comes to electric cars.
With its strong growth in the fourth quarter, the Chinese market leader and electric car manufacturer BYD also overtook the previous electric car leader Tesla worldwide. In Germany, BYD vehicles are still rarely seen on the roads. According to the KBA, just over 4,100 vehicles from this manufacturer were newly registered in 2023 - that is less than one percent of new electric car registrations.
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Despite the surge in electric car registrations, the expired subsidies and intense competition from Chinese manufacturers, such as BYD, pose challenges for the auto industry in 2024. In light of these challenges, Felix Gall, Head of Mobility at EY, predicts that the electric car segment may struggle to drive growth and the overall new car market could stagnate at its current low level, falling below pre-corona levels.
Source: www.ntv.de
