Netanyahu could face a dilemma over whether to prioritize the survival of his government or a truce agreement, unless Hamas intervenes.
Netanyahu is in a difficult position, as he struggles to balance between two conflicting objectives. On one hand, he's trying to avoid negotiating a permanent ceasefire with Hamas. He's been blaming their "delusional demands" for the collapse of previous rounds of negotiations. On the other hand, he can't ignore the new proposal put forward by Joe Biden. The US President recently outlined a plan that could lead to a permanent truce, and it seems Hamas might be open to accepting it.
Netanyahu's former adviser, Aviv Bushinsky, believes the prime minister is now trapped. "Bibi is cornered now," he said, explaining that Biden is "forcing Bibi to take off his mask and say: 'OK, are you in favor of a deal?'"
Some members of Netanyahu's coalition, particularly those from the far-right, are threatening to leave the government if a permanent ceasefire is reached. This would lead to its collapse. In order to avoid this difficult choice, Netanyahu is trying to reframe the latest proposal. He's claiming that he's not agreeing to end the war unless Hamas is completely eliminated. But this tactic hasn't been successful so far.
The far-right ministers, such as Itamar Ben Gvir, are suspicious of Netanyahu. They feel he's hiding something from them. If they continue to stand by their threats, Netanyahu may have to choose between a ceasefire deal and the collapse of his government.
The opposition leader, Yair Lapid, has offered to provide a "safety net" and keep the government in power in order to achieve a ceasefire deal. However, this would also give Lapid the power to force early elections once the deal is implemented.
And despite Netanyahu's recent political improvements, the war in Gaza continues. International condemnation has been pouring in, and the International Criminal Court has even sought an arrest warrant for Netanyahu. This has bolstered his position as Israel's defender, making him more popular domestically. However, his main rival, Benny Gantz, has been criticizing him for lacking a long-term strategy in Gaza.
A recent Channel 12 poll showed that 40% of Israelis support the ceasefire deal, while 27% oppose it and 33% are unsure. Biden's statement last week pressured Netanyahu to commit to the deal, but Netanyahu might be waiting to see if Hamas will make a deal or not. Time will tell whether Netanyahu will have to make the tough choice between his government's survival and a hostage deal.
There's a lot at stake for Netanyahu, as his political fortunes have been improving lately. In a Channel 12 survey last week, Netanyahu overtook his main rival, Benny Gantz, as the preferred choice for prime minister. Meanwhile, Gantz's National Unity party has started to falter, and Likud is gaining ground.
Biden's speech addressing the latest Israeli proposal was aimed at placing more pressure on Netanyahu. He acknowledged that there would be those in Israel who don't agree with the plan and call for the war to continue indefinitely, even within Netanyahu's own government. He urged the Israeli leadership to stand behind the deal, despite the potential pressure.
Finally, Hamas's response to the latest proposal is pending. The deal includes significant concessions to close the gap with Hamas's demands, including a clear pathway to a permanent ceasefire that includes the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in a second phase. Yet, it doesn't require Israel to commit to a permanent ceasefire upfront. A refusal to compromise on this point could force Netanyahu to make the difficult choice between a ceasefire deal and prolonging the war. Netanyahu's decision could significantly impact the lives of millions of people in Gaza.
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Netanyahu's dilemma extends beyond Israel, as international scrutiny over the conflict in the Middle East increases. The world community is closely watching the situation, with many calling for a peaceful resolution.
In the midst of these global concerns, Netanyahu finds himself in a delicate situation, needing to navigate the complex web of political alliances both within and beyond the Middle East.
