Census 2022 - Municipalities face budget problems due to census
The results of the 2022 census are causing significant losses in the municipal budgets of some communes. The City Council speaks of unexplained population losses during the census two years ago compared to the previous population count. These losses reach up to nearly 15%, resulting in painful cuts in the budgets of some communes, explained association expert Norbert Brugger. Population numbers are important for the municipal financial equalization system. The mechanism balances the financial power of communes in a country. The census therefore reflects in the planning of cities for kindergartens, schools, and elderly care.
His association is currently discussing aid for affected communes, Brugger said. The exact nature of the support will be clear at the end of September when all communes have received their determination notices.
Census important basis for municipal planning
Jagsthausen near Heilbronn has the largest loss nationwide with a decrease of 14.9% compared to the self-reported population. This population count is derived from the census 2011, which is regularly updated with newly added residents, departures, and deaths.
According to the Statistical State Office, there are also winners: For example, Moosburg, a small community in the Landkreis Biberach, whose population, according to the latest census, increased by 14 to 226. The winners also include Pforzheim with a plus of 4.8% or around 6,000 more inhabitants than previously recorded. However, the situation in the state capital Stuttgart is different - the census showed a loss of 21,700 inhabitants or 3.4%.
Many communes fear they will receive fewer funds from the municipal financial equalization. "These state funds go into a large pot, and the communes want as much of it as possible," explained Brugger. The exact amounts, however, do not only depend on population statistics. Cities receive higher state grants if they provide infrastructure for neighboring communes.
Mannheim's mayor, Christian Specht (CDU), speaks of a disappointing result with regard to a minus of 0.2% or 700 fewer inhabitants. The applied sampling method is reaching its limits, especially in "socially challenging areas." Specht: "Especially in areas with high fluctuation and among population groups that frequently change their housing, such as students and labor migrants, there are significant assessment deficits."
Communes can legally challenge the census
Brugger expects disputes from communes regarding the determination notices sent by the Statistical State Office. However, there will not be as many as in the case of the census 2011, against whose results 373 objections and 144 lawsuits - all in vain - were filed. The organization of the census has been significantly improved compared to the census 2011, from more survey stations to a larger sample size and more state funds for expenses related to the practical implementation. Therefore, Baden-Württemberg is in a better position with a population decrease of 1.2% to around 11 million than the federal government with a minus of 1.6% and Bavaria with a minus of 2.2%.
- The finances of some municipalities in Baden-Württemberg are currently facing significant challenges due to the population losses revealed in the 2022 census, leading to budget problem.
- Christian Specht, the mayor of Mannheim, expressed his disappointment with the census results, citing issues with the sampled method in socially challenging areas and high population fluctuation.
- The Association of Cities, led by expert Norbert Brugger, is discussing potential aid for communes affected by the census-induced budget problems, with a decision expected by the end of September.
- Stuttgart, the state capital, also experienced a loss of nearly 22,000 inhabitants, which could impact its financial equalization share with other municipalities in Baden-Württemberg according to Brugger.
