Mexico's upcoming president will be female; however, the breakthrough has been overshadowed by ongoing violence.
One individual expressed feeling helpless, stating the government had never helped in these lands. They resided in Chiapas, Mexico's poorest state, and a significant territory for criminal organizations transporting illegal substances, weapons, and migrants from neighboring Guatemala. Sheinbaum acknowledged the men, shaking their hands prior to her car departing.
Sheinbaum is the front-runner in an unprecedented election this weekend with Mexico projected to welcome its first female president, an incredible milestone in a nation renowned for its patriarchal culture and high rates of violence against women. There are around 10 female homicides daily in Mexico.
Sheinbaum enjoys support from her long-standing ally, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and their leftist Morena party. The closest contender is former senator Xochitl Galvés, representing a coalition of opposition parties.
Instead of celebrating the landmark election, its impact has been overshadowed by the most violent election campaign in Mexico's history and escalating violence throughout the country.
Since June 2023, at least 34 political candidates or applicants have been murdered, while the research group Laboratorio Electoral reports hundreds of attacks on candidates and individuals involved in the current electoral process.
Though homicide rates declined between 2019 and 2022, Mexico still endures staggering numbers of violence with over 30,000 people murdered annually, according to experts.
The new president's primary challenge is convincing voters she can eradicate the near-guaranteed impunity in Mexico. In 2022, over 95% of all crimes across the nation went unsolved, accoring to Mexico Evalua.
“Mexico is a place where over nine out of ten crimes committed against people go unpunished,” Stephanie Brewer, Mexico Director at the Washington Office for Latin America (WOLA), shared with CNN. “This is due partly to a lack of trust in authorities and fear of being investigated.”
'Inconsistent'
Mexico is a global pioneer in gender equality in government, as established in its 2019 constitution reform. It outshines several nations in terms of female representation in parliament.
Yet, despite this progress, Mexico is a hazardous place for women with disturbingly high femicide rates in the region. The most recent figures from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography show at least 11,852 femicides were reported in López Obrador's first three years - higher than the 7,439 recorded under Enrique Peña Nieto's presidency.
With security being a top voter concern, both Sheinbaum and Galvés have been hesitant about Their proposals. Neither has explicitly denied their commitment to the conflict-ridden policy of relying on the military to suppress criminal activities.
Sheinbaum, a former climate scientist, has committed to sustaining her predecessor's actions. Her team asserts she improved conditions for officials and advanced intelligence gathering about criminal networks while serving as Mexico City mayor.
Galvés has deemed López Obrador's non-confrontational strategy ineffective. She suggests withdrawing troops from domestic law enforcement roles, increasing patrols, and constructing a new high-security prison.
“In 2018, millions of Mexicans voted for change with hope, but the truth is that it did not happen,” Galvés said during an April presidential debate, targeting López Obrador's strategy in combatting organized crime. "Claudia Sheinbaum is proposing more hugs for criminals... I am proposing creating a Mexico where we can halt violence, but mainly investing in health and education.”
Uncertainty persists regarding how serious both women are regarding their promises. "The extent to which either one genuinely intends to emphasize and implement that is utterly unclear,” Brewer stated.
Mexcan authorities and experts are dismayed by the absence of distinctive strategies to address the security crisis, highlighting the connection between militarization and increased violence since its inception in 2006.
“Mexico cannot resolve issues like impunity or corruption in instituions or lack of effective investigations via military means,” Brewer informed CNN. “Militarization is not a tool capable of resolving such problems.”
'Embraces, rather than Bullets'
López Obrador was elected as president in 2018 on a platform of demilitarizing the country's war against drug cartels. His approach was centered on forging peace through 'embraces, rather than bullets.'
In an effort to tackle the root causes of economic insecurity, popular social welfare programs were promised by the government, rather than resorting to violent conflicts with criminal groups. An example of this strategy is the release of the son of Mexican drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, who was set free upon the orders of the current leader in 2019 to prevent bloodshed. However, he was later re-arrested and extradited to the US.
Nevertheless, the military aspect of public security has not been significantly diminished. The president merged various law-enforcement agencies, such as the federal police, to form the National Guard, which was initially meant to be under civilian command. However, it was quickly placed under the Secretary of Defense, leading to widespread criticism claiming that this move would only further militarize Mexico.
The Supreme Court upheld an opposition complaint and reinstated the National Guard under civil authority. The president claimed he would abide by the court's decision, but the National Guard still reports to the Secretary of Defense.
As per Brewer, this measure was meant to create a "populist and highly visible" impression that action was being taken against crime. The National Guard has since taken on roles previously performed by civilians, such as infrastructure projects and airport management, which presents the risk of corruption.
Meanwhile, criminal groups have only become more powerful.
A May report by the Crisis Group revealed that in areas where there were large military deployments due to warring cartels, there was minimal action taken to combat crime. Instead, they found that "a set of unspoken rules has been established, encouraging illegal groups to reduce and conceal the violence they perpetrate," which led to authorities ignoring a certain level of lawlessness in exchange for a reduction in public violence.
"Females have been experiencing a dramatic increase in being killed by firearms and targeted in the public sphere since around 2007," said Gema Kloppe-Santamaría, an assistant professor of Latin American History at George Washington University. Female homicides are rarely legally prosecuted, with an 88.6% impunity rate in these cases, according to Mexico Evalua.
Both presidential candidates have acknowledged the crisis of femicide, but Sheinbaum, who presently has a large polling lead over Galvaz, has a fraught relationship with some feminist groups who faced repressive actions from Mexico City police under her jurisdiction.
Sheinbaum has highlighted her efforts to support women and girls, asserting that "immunity to femicides in Mexico City during her time as leader was zero" and that there was a significant decrease in femicides under her watch. However, these claims have not been backed up by evidence, according to critics.
Amidst the ongoing gender-based violence, including femicide and disappearance, the prospect of having a female president seems "very paradoxical," Kloppe-Santamaría remarked.
CNN en Espanol's Ines Amarelo, Jose Manuel Alvarez, and Ivonne Valdes also contributed to this report.
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