Lower Saxony expects to lose millions due to census

Census 2022 - Lower Saxony expects to lose millions due to census

The state of Lower Saxony will have to forgo a significant amount of money due to the fact that it has fewer inhabitants than anticipated. The Finance Ministry expects annual revenue shortfalls in the low triple-digit million range, which translates to at least 100 million Euros less per year. A more precise figure was not yet available, according to a spokesperson. Both the NDR and the "Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on this.

The background for this is the Census 2022 data collection. It was discovered that there are approximately 7.94 million people living in Lower Saxony. This is about 170,000 fewer people than previously calculated.

Lower Saxony faces repayments

Lower Saxony's share of the overall population in Germany decreased as a result, from 9.65% to 9.6%. This negatively impacts the state's tax revenues through the federal financial equalization scheme. "The shortfalls are due to reduced sales tax contributions and lower supplementary grants from the federal government," explained the ministry.

The full impact of the new population figures will only be felt from this year onwards. The Census will only be taken into account proportionally for the final settlements of the years 2022 and 2023. In order to prevent excessive financial burden on the affected states, the ministry spokesperson stated. However, Lower Saxony still faces repayments for previous years - the exact amount and timing are still unknown.

Impact on municipalities varies

The districts, cities, and municipalities are also affected by the shift to the new population figures, although not all to the same extent. The leading associations speak of "shifts within the municipal family." "For some, the numbers were corrected downwards compared to the population forecast, for a few upwards," said Marco Trips, President of the Niedersächsischer Städte- und Gemeindebund.

"The population size is a central planning figure and the basis for legal proceedings in many respects," added Jan Arning, Managing Director of the Niedersächsischer Städtetag. The effects depend on the specific case.

Hildesheim could benefit from fewer residents

For example, the city of Hildesheim could potentially profit from the fact that it has slipped below the 100,000 resident mark. Since the assessment of their tax base is now lower than before, the allocations for Hildesheim in the communal financial equalization could increase, according to the communal peak associations.

The associations are also in agreement on the demand that the state should increase the share of communal revenues from the state's tax revenues. "The financial consequences of the Census shed light on the fact that Lower Saxony is the least well-funded among the 13 federal states in the Federation when it comes to financing its communes," said Hubert Meyer, Managing Director of the Niedersächsischer Landkreistag. Per capita, the Niedersächsischen communes received the smallest allocations.

1. Due to the lower population count in Lower Saxony, the state's financial ministry is anticipating annual revenue shortfalls in the tens of millions, affecting their finances significantly.
2. According to the spokesperson, the exact amount of the shortfall is yet to be determined, but it's expected to reach at least 100 million Euros per year.
3. The decrease in population, revealed in the Census 2022 data, has resulted in Lower Saxony having around 170,000 fewer residents than previously estimated.
4. The new population figures have led to a decrease in Lower Saxony's share of the overall population in Germany, from 9.65% to 9.6%, impacting its tax revenues through the federal financial equalization scheme.
5. The Niedersächsischer Städte- und Gemeindebund, an association of municipalities in Lower Saxony, has stated that the districts, cities, and municipalities will be impacted differently by the shift to the new population figures.
6. Potentially benefiting from the lower population count is the city of Hildesheim, as the decrease in residents could result in an increase in allocations for the city in the communal financial equalization, according to communal peak associations.

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