Lower population growth costs Hamburg millions

Statistics - Lower population growth costs Hamburg millions

The census-determined lower population count in Hamburg could cost the city dearly. It is expected that the city will structurally lose around 190 Million Euros per year, the Finance Department stated in response to an inquiry. On the one hand, Hamburg will have to pay an additional 130 Million Euros into the equalization of the states' finances. On the other hand, it will receive roughly 60 Million Euros less in the distribution of the sales tax. How this deficit will be compensated is still open. The city's total budget for the years 2025 and 2026 amounts to approximately 43.9 billion Euros as planned by the Senate. Previously, the "Hamburger Abendblatt" had reported this.

"The census results could also have implications for the tax trend," said Finance Senator Andreas Dressel (SPD). Since the SPD took over the government in 2011, the Senate no longer bases its budget planning primarily on tax forecasts, but uses the so-called tax trend as a basis. This measures itself according to real income and is adjusted annually. "To what extent this has further-reaching consequences and even triggers minor consolidation needs depends on the real tax revenues in other areas," Dressel said.

According to the Statistical Office North with a reference date of May 15, 2022, Hamburg had a population of around 1.811 million. This was 63,837 people or 3.5% fewer than previously assumed based on the population development of the 2011 census. Nationwide, the expected population in Germany was also slightly revised downwards. It was around 82.7 million - roughly 1.4 million fewer inhabitants than previously assumed.

According to the Finance Department, population size is relevant for numerous financial matters. This included, for example, all laws that provide for financial compensation in the sales tax distribution, such as the Childcare Quality and Participation Improvement Act. The Communal Investment Promotion Act and all financing and funding, in which the Königsteiner Key is taken into account, were also affected. This included, for example, jointly financed institutions such as the German Research Foundation or the Max Planck Society, the distribution of asylum seekers among the states, or the Hospital Structure Act.

1. The discrepancy in the population count might pose challenges for Hamburg's tax authority, as Finance Senator Andreas DRESSEL mentioned.
2. The Hanseatic city of Hamburg, with its current population size of around 1.811 million, according to the Statistical Office North, could face significant financial consequences due to the revised census results.
3. The revised population count in Hamburg could impact the city's finances in various ways, including the distribution of sales tax, as stated by the Finance Department.
4. The SPD-led Senate in Hamburg no longer relies solely on tax forecasts for budget planning but uses the tax trend, which is influenced by real income, as its basis, according to Senator Dressel.
5. The deficit resulting from the revised population count could potentially trigger minor consolidation needs, as indicated by Senator Dressel, depending on the real tax revenues in other areas.
6. The Statistical Office for Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein, in its May 15, 2022, report, revealed a population growth decrease of 3.5% in Hamburg, from the previous 2011 census assumptions.
7. The lower population count in Hamburg, as reported by the 'Hamburger Abendblatt', could impact the city's financial situation for the years 2025 and 2026, as its total budget is approximately 43.9 billion Euros, planning by the Senate.

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