- Lifespan Increases Once More – Accompanied by an Upsurge in Air Intake
Following the conclusion of the COVID-19 crisis, life span is on the rise once more. As per the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden, Germany in 2023, the average life expectancy at birth was 83.3 years for females and 78.6 years for males. This signifies an increase of approximately 0.4 years for both genders compared to the previous year. However, during the COVID years 2020 to 2022, life expectancy decreased by 0.6 years for both males and females compared to 2019. The Federal Office reported, "The level of 2019 has not been surpassed yet, but there's a noticeable improvement."
What can we anticipate for the future?
Pavel Grigoriev, head of the mortality research group at the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), stated the results were "nothing unexpected": "A catch-up effect was to be expected, and we are back to the long-term trend," he informed the news agency dpa. Prior to 2019, life expectancy had been increasing consistently. Grigoriev predicts an additional increase of 0.1 or 0.2 years in 2024.
It is essential to understand that "life expectancy at birth" is a summary of mortality rates across all age groups and is not dependent on the population size or age structure. This makes it ideal for comparing different time periods, according to statisticians.
Life expectancy is not the same as longevity
Although it may seem so, it is not a prediction for the lifespan of newborns in the present. In the existing forecasts, boys born in 2023 are estimated to live between 81 and 90 years, and girls between 85 and 93 years, depending on the trend variation.
The two life expectancy values are derived differently: "Life expectancy at birth" is calculated using period life tables, while the lifespan of individual birth cohorts is predicted using cohort life tables.
With period life tables, we examine the present: "Life expectancy at birth" represents the average lifespan of newborns if they were exposed to current mortality trends. Using cohort life tables, statisticians look towards the future, incorporating assumptions about future changes in mortality patterns.
Western men live longer
If we consider variation one, let's examine women and men from east and west. The catch-up effect is not uniform for everyone, as the data suggests. In the east, life expectancy increased again in 2022, whereas it continued to decrease in the west. In 2023, life expectancy grew in both parts of the country.
Women in both regions now live almost as long as they did before the pandemic. However, western men live 1.4 years longer than eastern men. During the pandemic, this difference expanded from a similar level in 2019 to 2.3 years in 2021. Researchers suggest that this is due to the poorer health status of eastern men.
Losing ground internationally
Germany is one of the laggards in Western Europe in terms of life expectancy and is falling behind. This was evident in a recent study by the BiB and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, which examined mortality trends over several decades.
In the year 2000, Germany's disparity in life expectancy at birth compared to the average in Western Europe was around 0.7 years. By 2022, this disparity had widened to 1.7 years. "The persistent gap in German life expectancy appears to be mainly due to higher mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases in advanced adulthood or retirement age," the authors explain.
The Coronavirus pandemic significantly impacted life expectancy, causing a decrease of 0.6 years for both males and females from 2019 to 2022. Despite this setback, Pavel Grigoriev predicts an increase of 0.1 or 0.2 years in life expectancy at birth in 2024.
