Israel-Hezbollah confrontations could escalate imminently.
After months of back-and-forth combat, Israel feels it cannot disregard its northern front any longer or delay taking action there. It seems a full-scale war may become more probable, even though neither side desires it. Here's what we currently know:
What is the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah about?
Israel and Lebanon have technically been at war for years. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, sending its tanks all the way to the capital Beirut, following an attack from Palestinian militants in the country. Israel occupied southern Lebanon for 22 years before being driven out by Hezbollah in 2000. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is officially deemed a "resistance" group tasked with challenging Israel, which Beirut recognizes as an enemy state. Many Western nations classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.
Since then, the two sides have sporadically exchanged gunfire. Hostilities heated up in 2006 when Israel went to war in southern Lebanon over Hezbollah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers. Over a thousand Lebanese citizens lost their lives, with most being civilians, as well as forty-nine Israeli civilians and 121 Israeli soldiers. Two years later, Hezbollah returned the captured soldiers in exchange for the release of Lebanese and Palestinian detainees from Israeli prisons, along with the bodies of militants Israel was detaining.
The most recent hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah began following an attack led by Hamas on Israel on October 7, resulting in 1,200 fatalities and 250 abductions, according to Israeli authorities. This precipitated Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza, which has destroyed a significant portion of the region and claimed more than 36,000 Palestinian lives. Hezbollah says its ongoing skirmishes with Israel are in support of the Palestinians in Gaza.
Hezbollah's military might has expanded since 2006, when it largely relied on inaccurate Soviet-made Katyusha rockets. Today, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah claims his group has more than 100,000 fighters and reservists. The organization is also claimed to possess 150,000 rockets that could overwhelm Israel's defenses if a total war erupts.
What's driving the escalation?
Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has been steadily escalating since October 8, according to Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. This is a "gradual intensification" that " slowly climbs," he said.
However, both sides have come closer to war recently, as border skirmishes have increased in frequency and severity. "There is undoubtedly an escalation," said Wimmen, particularly regarding the number of casualties on either side of the border and the nature of the weaponry Hezbollah has been using.
On Wednesday, a Hezbollah attack killed an Israeli reservist in a village in northern Israel, raising the total number of soldiers killed on the Israeli side to 19.
Israel and Hezbollah have also been striking deeper into each other's territories than they were at the beginning of the war, when hostilities were contained within a 4-kilometer (2.5-mile) radius of the border on each side. Hezbollah has fired rockets 35 kilometers into Israel, while Israel has targeted areas of Lebanon more than 120 kilometers north.
Cross-border attacks from Lebanon this week led to massive fires breaking out in Israel's northern region, which Israel blamed on rocket fire from southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah declared it had deployed a "swarm of" drones at Israeli military sites.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah said it had targeted Israel's Iron Dome defense system in the northern village of Ramot Naftali, using a guided missile. Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Lt. Col. Peter Lerner stated at a briefing on Thursday, "I cannot confirm that at this point. I cannot confirm that this occurred at all."
Amal Saad, a Cardiff University lecturer and Hezbollah expert, said the group's escalation "is a significant departure from prior flare-ups that have taken place since October 8."
"This stage surpasses merely reacting to Israeli assaults and restoring deterrence; it involves communicating new messages and strategies," Saad wrote on X.
The situation has become "highly visible" and "difficult to ignore," said Wimmen of the International Crisis Group. Israeli officials feel compelled to react, or at the very least make it seem like they're responding, under pressure from far-right government and army members.
Ronni Shaked, a Hebrew University of Jerusalem scholar, told CNN, "There's a push within the government and the Israeli army to act in the north, Ronni Shaked, a scholar at the Truman Institute at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told CNN. "Nobody can live with this situation."
What are both sides saying?
While rhetoric from both sides has been heated, experts claim neither side desires an all-out conflict.
Netanyahu warned in December that Beirut would become like Gaza if Hezbollah chose to start a full-scale war.
However, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich downplayed the possibility of a broader war this week, stating the IDF is "not interested" in expanding the war to annihilate Hezbollah. The military is "telling us right now that it doesn't want to... start an attack in the north, engage and defeat Hezbollah, and conquer and establish a security zone."
During his trip to the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, which is near the border with Lebanon, Netanyahu claimed that Israel was ready for "extremely intense action" in the north.
"Those who assume they can hurt us without any repercussions are mistaken," the prime minister said. "We will, in one way or another, reinstate security in the northern region."
Naim Qassem, the deputy leader of Hezbollah, spoke to Al Jazeera on Tuesday, asserting that the organization considered the recent threats from Israel to be insignificant.
"We have opted not to broaden the battlefield, and we aren't longing for a full-scale war. However, if forced to do so, we're prepared and will not back down," Qassem said, adding that Hezbollah would stop attacking Israel when the war in Gaza comes to an end.
It's possible that a full-blown war could occur despite both sides' decision not to intentionally start one.
Wimmen from the International Crisis Group noted that Israel and Hezbollah are highly unlikely to make a conscious choice to start a conflict. The more severe the conflict becomes, the deeper each side strikes into the other's territory, and the larger the weapons used, the more likely it is that something will go wrong.
As the conflict intensifies, Netanyahu is under immense pressure from the opposition and his coalition members, particularly given that so many Israeli citizens have been forced to abandon their homes in the north.
More than 53,000 Israelis have evacuated their homes due to the conflict, according to statements made by the IDF. In Lebanon, over 94,000 people have been displaced from areas and towns near the Israeli border since the beginning of the hostilities, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health.
"All Hezbollah fortresses must be razed; war is the solution!" this was the statement made by the Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir this week.
Lapid, the opposition leader, lambasted the government, stating: "The north is engulfed in flames, and Israeli deterrence is going up in smoke as well." He continued, "No plan for life after the war in Gaza, no measures to repatriate the northerners, no government, no strategy." He made these comments on [X].
The US has expressed concern over the potential for further escalation, fearing it could result in conflict that is uncontrollable. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Wednesday, "The United States is deeply concerned about the potential for escalation. We are currently involved in diplomatic discussions to halt the conflict from escalating uncontrollably."
Shaked, a scholar at the Truman Institute, argued that while Hezbollah claims its attacks on Israel are in support of Gaza, its plans are likely to be closely linked with its closest ally, Iran, given the significant stakes involved.
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The Middle East, being a region fraught with geopolitical tensions, is closely watching the escalating Israel-Hezbollah confrontations with concern. The world community is urging both sides to exercise restraint and avoid a full-scale conflict, as the potential consequences could have far-reaching implications beyond the region.
