Is there a risk of a gas shortage in the cold?

A particularly cold winter would continue to catapult Germany into a gas bottleneck. However, meteorologists and storage operators are hopeful despite the current temperatures. However, security of supply is still threatened by another danger.

Southern Germany in particular is drowning in snow. In the Bavarian Forest, minus 24 degrees Celsius was measured overnight, in the outskirts of Munich minus 18 degrees, for example at the airport. It hasn't been this cold there in the whole of last winter, and the cold is set to continue for the time being. In addition to the acute risk of black ice, is there now also a risk of gas shortages again? Both meteorologists and storage operators are giving the all-clear for the time being - but only if consumers continue to save diligently. Another risk has not been averted either.

"The low temperatures in recent days have led to a significant increase in daily gas consumption in Germany," reports Sebastian Heinermann in response to an inquiry from ntv.de. The Managing Director of the Initiative Energien Speichern (INES), an association of German gas and hydrogen storage operators, explains that Germany hardly exported any gas on the days in question. Imports from other countries also fell significantly because their consumption also increased. Germany now sources the majority of its gas imports from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium.

According to Heinermann, large quantities were withdrawn from Germany's gas storage facilities to meet the high demand; on November 30, these already covered almost half of consumption. However, customers continued to save and November was relatively mild. Storage operators are therefore optimistic about the gas supply for the rest of the winter.

A very cold winter would cause gas consumption to rise so sharply that, according to the Federal Network Agency, a shortage would be imminent. Despite the Arctic cold, this risk is currently not high, as ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander explains. According to long-term forecasts, December could be slightly too cold compared to the long-term average. However, February is likely to be too mild. Forecasts differ for January, but "all in all, we can expect a winter that is rather too mild," says Björn Alexander. Even if it does have "potential for freezing cold spells", especially in December and January.

Gas consumption is critical

The Federal Network Agency currently rates the temperature forecast as critical because the thermometer is showing values well below the average of the past five years. Even adjusted for temperature, the agency classifies gas consumption as critical. This is because less than ten percent is being saved compared to the years before the war in Ukraine. The experts only see a stable situation with temperature-adjusted savings of more than 20 percent. In view of the well-filled storage facilities, the gas supply is still considered stable.

However, in addition to the necessary savings by consumers, there is another potential risk: the loss of supplies, both to Germany and to other countries. Germany would also have to supply south-eastern Europe if Russia were to stop its remaining supplies there.

RWE CEO Markus Krebber is currently warning of such supply bottlenecks. In order to be prepared for pipeline or import terminal failures, Europe must increase its import capacities, the power plant operator demands in the "Financial Times". He had previously warned of supply risks for Germany. Germany lacks the necessary reserves, Krebber told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

LNG overcapacity for emergencies

According to the head of Germany's largest electricity producer, a longer-term interruption to important natural gas supplies from Norway, for example due to an act of sabotage against pipelines, would be particularly problematic. "Then we would have much higher gas prices again and probably also supply shortage problems." This is because the pure storage volume is only sufficient for a good two winter months, and constant supplies are also required. RWE also stores and trades gas.

At least for this year, gas market expert Sebastian Gulbis shares the assessment of the RWE CEO that more LNG capacities would be desirable. "They are currently not enough to compensate for Russian gas," the partner at energy consultancy Enervis clarifies in an interview with ntv.de. However, further import options for liquefied gas are planned until 2026, both in Poland, Belgium and the Netherlands as well as in Germany. "The supply is currently tight, but this will ease towards 2026," predicts Gulbis.

"Don't heat your home to 23 degrees"

It will then be necessary to examine how sustainably customers are saving and to what extent further import capacities are necessary. The market expert also believes that a certain amount of overcapacity is necessary in order to be prepared for a supply shortfall. Gulbis recommends factoring in the failure of the largest infrastructure. In Germany, this would be the pipelines that transport Norwegian gas to Germany.

He believes that the short-term savings potential in industry has been exhausted. The market expert attributes the recent increase in gas consumption compared to the previous year not only to the lower temperatures, but also to the current comparatively low tariffs. He fears that consumers have lost sight of the risk of a gas shortage and advises them to be economical: "Before there are forced shutdowns, we shouldn't heat our homes to 23 degrees."