Fact check - Is shoplifting really on the rise?
## Contents
- Has the number of shoplifting incidents increased?
- How often is stolen without us noticing?
- The problem with the shadow economy
- Why do people steal?
- How has the damage caused by shoplifting developed?
- How reliable are the study's estimates?
- Conclusion: What can we conclude from the study?
The renowned trade institute EHI publishes an annual study on "inventory differences." Behind the cryptic term lies the loss of goods that disappear annually in retail: through theft, damage, and spoilage. This year, the figures drew attention: "In 2023, the already high level has increased again by 15 percent," according to the press release on the loss due to shoplifting.
The study author Frank Horst is quoted as saying: "We have now reached a turning point at which the increase in shoplifting assumes a special dimension and requires special attention." What's behind the alarm call?
Has the number of shoplifting incidents increased?
Yes and no. First, let's look at the figures we have for certain. That is the official criminal statistics. In the previous year, the number of reported shoplifting incidents rose to 426,000 cases, which is almost a third more than before Corona. A significant increase, indeed.
However, the number is significantly lower than what we used to see: A peak was reached in 1997 with 678,000 reported incidents, which is almost two-thirds more than today. Since then, the number has been gradually decreasing. In 2002, there were still 559,000 reported incidents, and in the year before Corona, there were 326,000. We have seen more reported shoplifting incidents than before Corona. However, compared to the years before, the numbers are still within the range.
Reported shoplifting incidents only represent a small portion of the problem. In fact, not all shoplifters are caught. On the contrary.
How often is stolen without us noticing?
We cannot know for sure. Researchers from the EHI attempt to estimate it. They ask retailers how much merchandise is lost and why. Result for the previous year: Goods worth 4.8 billion Euro were missing. The estimated value of stolen goods: 4.1 billion Euro. Approximately two-thirds of shoplifting incidents, according to the estimation of the surveyed companies, were attributed to customers: 2.8 billion Euro. The rest were stolen by employees or suppliers.
According to the study: "From the average damage of all reported shoplifting incidents and the inventory damage in retail, it can be calculated that approximately 24 million shoplifting incidents ... go undetected each year."
In this statement, there are many assumptions. The value of all missing goods contains inaccuracies. It's quite challenging to accurately estimate the amount and cause of shoplifting. The amount stolen – and most importantly, from whom, i.e., the customer, salesperson, or supplier – is roughly estimated. Some of the companies' estimates are based on "good data," as study author Frank Horst explained to stern upon request, while others rely on "gut feeling."
Under the circumstances, companies tend to downplay employee theft. However, when more and more employees sell and accept goods alone, more opportunities for diverting items arise.
The Dark Figure
Let's assume the estimation is correct. Let's say there are 24 million shoplifting incidents. If only 426,000 are reported, the dark figure is enormous: In 55 out of 56 cases, shoplifting does not show up. Only during inventory does the merchant discover that something is missing.
This means that retail detectives working a little better would result in many more reports. If they did not overlook 55 out of 56 shoplifting incidents but only 54, there would be twice as many reports.
From criminal statistics, it is difficult to determine if customers are stealing more or not. And certainly not if there is any connection to inflation. Rather, it is about whether businesses are catching more shoplifters. This has the greatest impact.
Frank Horst, the study author, responds to this objection: The expenses for retail detectives have remained constant, so less is being monitored than before. Therefore, he assumes that indeed more is being stolen when more shoplifters are caught.
However, there has been continuous investment in surveillance technology and shoplifting protection for years. And during Corona, a lot was redesigned. Perhaps the measures are simply working better.
Why do people shoplift?
The news agency DPA quotes study author Frank Horst as saying, "Price increases have put some people in financial difficulties and they have stolen more frequently." This cannot be inferred from the study.
In response to a query from stern, he explains that this is based on the fact that meat, butter, and cheese are being stolen more frequently. However, this is not necessarily related to financial distress. It could also be the annoyance of customers that some products have become particularly expensive. And secondly, a new pattern of shoplifting is emerging due to the new trend towards self-checkout counters.
What is increasing, however, are the "heavy shoplifting incidents," in which display cases or other protective devices are broken and valuable items are stolen. Since 1997, the number of reported heavy shoplifting incidents has quadrupled – there are now over 27,000. Approximately one-third of these are attributed to organized gangs that work in a division of labor and, according to the EHI study, typically steal goods worth 1000 to 2000 euros.
How has the damage caused by shoplifting developed?
According to EHI statistics, the damage caused by shoplifting has been increasing continuously in recent years. In ten years, it rose from 2.1 billion euros to 2.8 billion. However, we have year for year inflation, sometimes more, sometimes less.
If we account for this effect, the damage has only increased by 0.2 billion euros. Compared to the total loss of goods (i.e., the total "inventory difference"), the inflation-adjusted loss in ten years was even 0.1 billion euros lower. And as mentioned earlier: The share of shoplifting in the total loss is estimated.
Inflation-adjusted, the projected growth for 2023 in damages reported is roughly about 6 percentage points less impressive: That leaves approximately 9 percent of the reported 15 percent. Is this – considering the uncertainties surrounding this figure – a turning point?
Frank Horst remains firm on his position upon request. His argument: The change in damages due to shoplifting is significantly higher than in the studies of previous years. This can be clearly derived from the numbers.
How accurate are the study's estimates?
Surprisingly, the study itself is quite straightforward. "There are significant differences in evaluation depending on the industry," it states. "The deviations within an industry also show how subjective the assumptions about the frequency and extent of shoplifting are."
Author Frank Horst makes it clear in the study itself that everything is roughly estimated. As is often the case: In the end, the results are presented in the press release without these limitations.
Conclusion: What can we take away from the study?
Despite all uncertainties, the numbers from the EHI-study are interesting. It is clear: There is a high dark figure in shoplifting. Therefore, the official crime statistics only provide an inadequate representation of reality, and the EHI-study is a valuable addition.
Since the end of the 90s, the police have registered fewer shoplifters. However, the persistent high loss for retailers speaks for the fact that shoplifting is a relatively stable phenomenon. In recent times, fewer thieves have been caught or reported.
And for this, the trade study provides plausible reasons: The trade has extended opening hours without correspondingly hiring more loss prevention detectives. It has saved on personnel, which means that sales staff now have to cover more floor space. After Corona, it was also difficult to hire enough staff.
Clearly, less personnel makes it easier for employees to steal. The question remains, why is this not reflected in the numbers. Companies have been underestimating the proportion for years.
Conclusion: Given the high dark figure, it is difficult to make general claims about shoplifting based on short-term changes in statistics. This applies to the official crime statistics as well as to the EHI-study.
Based on the study and the text provided, here are two sentences that contain the given words:
The study from the EHI suggests that approximately 24 million shoplifting incidents go undetected each year, contributing to a significant portion of the inventory loss in retail trade. As inflation continues to affect retail prices, some individuals may turn to shoplifting as a result of financial difficulties, leading to an increase in shoplifting incidents, according to study author Frank Horst.
