Iran endorses catalog of predominantly conservative contenders for presidential vote, succeeding Raisi.
From the initial pool of 80 individuals, only 6 passed the vetting process carried out by the Iranian Guardian Council, a significant 12-member organization responsible for supervising elections and legislation. The shortlist consisted of 4 women, but none made the cut.
The final selection features figures such as Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander and current parliament speaker, and Saeed Jalili, previously the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and chief nuclear negotiator. These two have been neck-in-neck in the past, both supporting Raisi during the 2021 presidential election.
According to Sina Toossi, an Iran analyst based in DC and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, Qalibaf and Jalili are each strong conservatives and show no signs of withdrawing support for each other.
The final roundup additionally encompasses Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Alireza Zakani, and Mostafa Pour Mohammad, all belonging to the hardline conservative camp.
The Guardian Council, however, has not excluded all reformists. It has given the green light to Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker who held the office of parliament deputy speaker between 2016 and 2020. His chances of winning are limited given the strong conservative presence on the ballot.
In a controversial comment during the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, Pezeshkian had stated, “We're responsible for this. We want to enforce religion by using force, which is scientifically impossible."
Toossi acknowledges that if the conservative voter base is divided, Pezeshkian may amass more than 50% of the support and secure a victory in the first round. However, the outcome is ultimately contingent on the engagement of the long-established reformist base, who have skipped the past several elections.
Bypassed from the list of candidates are former two-term president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and ex-parliament speaker Ali Larijani, both of whom were once banned by the Guardian Council.
Raisi's untimely death and the imminent election are set against a backdrop of challenges both internally and externally for the Islamic Republic. Its economy is reeling under strict American sanctions, its youth are becoming increasingly discontented, and Iran is under assail from hostile forces in the Middle East and beyond.
The planned June 28 vote coincides with a weakening trust in the establishment. The low turnouts during the March parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections serve as a testament to this, despite efforts by the government to invigorate voter interest.
Read also:
The world is closely watching the political developments in Iran, as the presidential election approaches after Raisi's endorsement. Despite the majority being conservative contenders, the Guardian Council has also permitted a reformist like Masoud Pezeshkian to participate, albeit with limited chances of winning, given the strong conservative presence in the Middle East.
