Interest rate increases persist amidst reduced interest rate adjustments
The European Central Bank (EZB) has lately decreased its primary interest rates in the Eurozone by 0.25%, settling at 4.25%. This supposedly makes credits less expensive. However, the narrative changes in real estate financing.
The European Central Bank's move to adjust to the dipping inflation rates in the Eurozone and lower the primary interest rate, which commercial banks borrow money from them at in the Eurozone, by 0.25% to 4.25%, should positively impact mortgage rates.
Nonetheless, mortgage rates have skyrocketed more than fourfold since the start of 2022. According to Check24, building loan interest rates have been climbing since the commencement of the year. In mid-January, the lowest rate for a ten-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.93%, whereas the current rate stands at 3.11%.
The average fixed-rate interest rate currently is 3.51%, 0.37 percentage points higher than in January. For a building loan of €400,000 and an initial repayment rate of three percent, this amounts to €117,308 in interest costs after the end of a ten-year fixed-rate period. In January, the interest costs would have been €105,202 – €12,106 less.
"The ECB's interest rate reduction was already accounted for by banks at the start of the year," says Ingo Foitzik, head of mortgage financing at Check24. "If two or three more interest rate cuts were anticipated in 2022 in January, banks now anticipate, due to persisting high inflation, only one or two further cuts for 2024. Consequently, mortgage rates have ascended since the start of the year in total."
The ECB's decision impacts mortgage rates indirectly. The most crucial factor is the interest rates for ten-year German government bonds. They determine the yields for Pfandbriefe, which banks then use for the re-financing of real estate loans.
A closer look at the inflation rate
The FMH Financial Consulting had previously speculated before the interest rate cut that borrowers wouldn't pay less for their mortgage financing in the near future. Those who want to know how mortgage rates will progress should not consider the benchmark interest rate, but the inflation rate. It hasn't declined in the past month, and whether it will decline in June is also questionable. It is the ECB's duty to maintain a stable currency. If the benchmark interest rate is lowered while the inflation rate does not warrant this decision, investors state: German government bond, yes, but only at higher interest rates, if the ECB does not ensure a declining inflation. An interest rate reduction is not an effective tool for this. If the yield of the 10-year German government bond rises due to investors demanding higher interest rates, Pfandbrief yields also rise - and eventually, mortgage rates do as well.
Those who are contemplating a shorter or longer interest rate binding period should ponder which interest rate development they anticipate. If one assumes that interest rates will be significantly lower in five years than they are today, a short term is recommended. If, however, one imagines that interest rates will rather go upwards, a long-term securitization of 20 years would be wise. Security comes at a cost, but offers long-term certainty about one's own burden.
Mortgage interest rates compared
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- Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) lowering its primary interest rate by 0.25% to 4.25%, the ECB's move has not significantly impacted real estate financing, as mortgage rates have continuously increased since the start of 2022.
- The rising mortgage rates can be attributed to the banks' anticipation of fewer interest rate cuts due to persisting high inflation in 2024, following the ECB's initial interest rate reduction in January.
- The ECB's decision to reduce interest rates indirectly affects mortgage rates, as the interest rates for ten-year German government bonds impact the yields for Pfandbriefe, which banks use for re-financing real estate loans.
- As the inflation rate has not shown signs of decline, borrowers should consider alternative options like shorter or longer interest rate binding periods to adapt to the anticipated interest rate developments in the real estate market.
- When choosing between a shorter or longer term, individuals must take into account their expectations about future interest rate trends in order to make an informed decision regarding the cost and certainty of their mortgage burdens.
