Increased climate change leads to more severe flooding.
Modern nations like Germany aren't exempt from climate change's impact, as demonstrated by the recent flood catastrophe in the south of the Federal Republic. Recent research suggests that climate change has enhanced the rain that brought on the floods by up to 10%.
A quick analysis by the research consortium Climameter found that climate change contributed to the magnitude of the floods in southern Germany. The storm that caused the floods was therefore 10% more intense due to human-induced warming. Neither El Niño nor other natural climate occurrences were responsible for the deterioration, according to the consortium. Even modest increases in precipitation can have large effects, as the research team explained. The 2021 Ahr Valley flood, for instance, was intensified by climate change by 3 to 19%.
Climameter is a research project funded by the European Union and the French research organization CNRS. The "attribution study" is based on meteorological data spanning the last 40 years, according to the statement. Researchers compared low-pressure systems from the end of the 20th century (1979-2001) with those from the recent decades (2002-2023). Today's low-pressure systems, like those that hit southern Germany, are about 10% more potent.
In June, severe weather brought about heavy rain and flooding, primarily in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. Some people lost their lives, thousands were forced to flee, and landslides and dam failures occurred. "The Climameter results indicate that climate change prompted by CO2 emissions also impacts industrialized nations like Germany and can cause social, economic, and ecological destruction," said CNRS co-author Davide Faranda. "Climate change affects all demographics, and urgent action is needed to reduce the dangers of climate extremes in a warming world."
Co-author Erika Coppola from the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste added that even in a country like Germany with prepared river banks for flooding, the existing measures are insufficient given the increased discharge volumes. "New strategies and measures must be implemented to deal with the growing likelihood of similar flood events, which are now happening more frequently than in the past and are expected to increase further due to human-induced climate change. There's no question about it, and there's no time to waste because these changes are happening right now."
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