In April, industrial production remained unchanged while exports kept on climbing.
ING's analyst Carsten Brzeski gave his opinion on a "sluggish beginning" for Germany's economy during the second quarter. In more recent weeks, optimism has surfaced in Germany, but it turns out to be more like "cesspool thinking." "The data on industrial production and trade for April were the first examination. The results are mixed," the expert explained.
The head of the Foreign Trade Association (BGA), Dirk Jandura, expressed satisfaction with Germany's export numbers. "The global and geopolitical climate is precarious," he stated simultaneously. "It's still premature to predict a long-term recovery in foreign trade. It's more like a horizontal movement."
The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce praised the export figures but complained about a "subpar performance" so far. In general, the German economy is stagnant. "The international competitiveness of companies is decreasing," they stated, especially noting that China's demand "remains far too feeble."
On Friday, the Chinese customs provided recent international trade data. Exports rose unexpectedly by 7.6% in May. Imports, on the other hand, only grew slightly - a sign of an uneven revival of the Chinese economy from the pandemic.
Bundesbank expects that the German economy will soon escape its "ghost existence" phase. Export operations and private consumption are predicted to remain prominent. For 2024, the Bundesbank anticipates a raise of 0.3% in GDP. In 2025, they forecast 1.1%.
In the first quarter, the German economy expanded by 0.2%, as per the Federal Statistical Office. Experts and economists at the Bundesbank predict the same performance this quarter. In the third quarter, the central bank anticipates the German economy will "advance another level upwards". In the first half of the year, there are no signals of a recovery from industry, due to weak order intake from there.
In April, the Federal Statistical Office learned that output in the manufacturing industry dropped by 0.1%. Factoring for price, season, and calendar adjustments, industrial production increased by 0.2%. Energy production rose by 1.6%, while construction saw a negative decrease of 2.1%, according to the statisticians.
Exports went up by 1.6% compared to March. Their worth amounted to €136.5 billion. Exports also increased in March. Exports to EU countries increased by 1.2%, while exports to non-EU countries increased by 2.0%. In particular, Britain imported more goods from Germany.
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The Economic situation in Germany showed a sluggish beginning in the second quarter, according to ING's analyst Carsten Brzeski. Despite optimism in recent weeks, the data on industrial production and trade in April revealed mixed results. The global climate for exports is precarious, as acknowledged by the head of the BGA, Dirk Jandura. The German economy's stagnation was also lamented by the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (IHK). Despite an unexpected increase in exports in May by 7.6%, there are no clear signs of a recovery in the industry. The Bundesbank anticipates a modest improvement in the German economy, predicting a 0.3% raise in GDP for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025. In April, the Federal Statistical Office reported a 0.1% drop in output in the manufacturing industry, but exports continued to climb, reaching €136.5 billion.
