Hezbollah's reputation relies heavily on avenging Israel. However, their vulnerabilities have become evident.
Since May 2000, the group successfully pushed Israel out of southern Lebanon after a long, grueling conflict. Six years later, they stood their ground against Israel in a 34-day war. Since then, the Iranian-supported group has been enhancing its missile and drone arsenal. In Syria, they fought alongside Iran and Russia against opposition to the Assad regime. For the past 11 months, there's been nearly daily skirmishes along the border with Israel, forcing over 62,000 Israelis to evacuate their homes in the northern part of the Jewish state (while over 100,000 Lebanese have fled the border area).
However, this summer, the group's image of strength started to crumble. On July 30, an Israeli drone struck a residential building in southern Beirut, killing a senior Hezbollah commander, Fu’ad Shukr. Furthermore, on Tuesday, around 3:30 p.m. Beirut time, numerous pagers exploded in areas with Hezbollah influence, injuring nearly 3,000 people and killing at least 12.
On Wednesday, a new wave of explosions rocked Beirut's southern suburbs and other towns in the south of the country, claiming at least nine lives, according to the Lebanese health ministry. A security source informed CNN that these devices were walkie-talkies.
Although Hezbollah has not disclosed exact figures, it's apparent that many of their lower-ranking members were injured in the explosions.
In summary, the missile attack and the exploding devices indicate significant infiltration into Hezbollah's crucial command and control networks by Israel. The group has never been this vulnerable or compromised.
Hezbollah has sworn revenge on Israel. Their credibility hinges on it. But realistically, what options do they have?
Not many, according to their recent actions.
To avenge Shukr's death, on August 25, Hezbollah launched over 300 drones and missiles at Israeli targets, including, as per their leader Hassan Nasrallah, the Mossad intelligence agency's headquarters and Unit 8200, Israel's signals intelligence unit. However, Israel denied any substantial damage, and no evidence has been presented to contradict this claim.
Many of the individuals carrying the exploding devices were likely field officers, the local lynchpins for cells of fighters comprising Hezbollah's core forces. And now, at least 2,000, or more, may be temporarily incapacitated, or worse.
The communication network, which the pagers and walkie-talkies played a crucial role in, is likely offline.
Hezbollah's intelligence officers must be struggling to decipher how this happened.
Even if a decision is made to retaliate against Israel, how can the order be conveyed down the line, and who can, or even will, execute it?
The border conflict has already claimed a high price for Hezbollah, who admits to losing over 400 fighters since last October, compared to around 250 lost during the far more intense 34-day war with Israel in 2006.
Hezbollah continues to present a brave front, pledging to continue striking Israeli targets as long as the Gaza conflict persists.
“Morale remains high, and the wounded will return to the front," a "Hezbollah supporter" told CNN as he waited for news on his friend's condition in the hospital.
Hezbollah is backed into a corner. Israel is no longer interested in the low-intensity conflict on its northern border and is resorting to increasingly drastic, potentially escalatory measures. There isn't much Hezbollah can do to halt Israel, or retaliate.
The world is watching as Hezbollah grapples with the consequences of their actions following recent attacks on their command and control networks. The vulnerability of Hezbollah has become evident to the world, with significant damage to their missile arsenal and communication systems.
