Hezbollah poses a threat to this minuscule European nation.
"War in Cyprus could be imminent if it allows Israeli forces to use its airports and bases, warned a leader of an Iran-backed militant group in a televised speech on Wednesday. This statement followed Israel's warning that the chances of a full-scale war in Lebanon were growing rapidly.
Cyprus' President, Nikos Christodoulides, responded by denying any involvement in the war, stating that the comments are unwelcome but do not reflect the truth about Cyprus' role in the conflict. He added that communication channels remain open with the Lebanese and Iranian governments.
The European Union came to Cyprus' defense on Thursday, stating that since Cyprus is an EU member state, the EU is essentially Cyprus, and vice versa. Peter Stano, an EU spokesperson, expressed that any threat against an EU member state is a threat against the EU as a whole.
Greece also declared its 'complete solidarity' with Cyprus, stating that any threat of violence is a breach of the United Nations Charter.
Lebanon's Foreign Minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, seemingly tried to mend ties by calling his Cypriot counterpart, Constantinos Kombos, expressing Lebanon's appreciation for Cyprus' contributions to regional stability.
Experts believe that while war between Israel and Hezbollah remains uncertain, Cyprus' potential involvement adds a new layer to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. This could potentially pull an EU nation into a regionwide conflict and spotlight Cyprus' relationship with Israel.
Why is Cyprus strategically important?
Located near the Eastern Mediterranean's geopolitical divide between the Middle East and southern Europe, Cyprus finds itself geographically closer to Middle Eastern conflicts than European power centers. The island, roughly twice the size of Delaware, is split into two parts: the Greek-speaking Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish-speaking Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Most of the international community only recognizes the sovereignty of the Greek part of Cyprus, which was the target of Nasrallah's threats.
The Republic of Cyprus is a member of the EU but not of the NATO defense alliance. The nation has a population of roughly 920,000 people, with Nicosia as its capital.
How strong are the ties between Cyprus and Israel?
Diplomatic relations between Cyprus and Israel started in 1960, following Cyprus' independence from British rule, but an embassy in Tel Aviv wasn't established until 1994. Relations soured in the 1980s and 1990s due to Israel's close ties with Turkey and the Arab-Israeli conflict, in which Cyprus took the side of Arab states and supported Palestinian statehood.
However, ties improved in the late 1990s and 2000s as Israel looked to the Eastern Mediterranean for economic partnerships, particularly after natural gas discoveries in the region. Experts suggest Israel also views Cyprus as a partner to counter regional threats, primarily from Turkey and Iran-linked groups.
In recent years, Israel has reportedly used Cypriot territory for training its troops for potential wars with Hezbollah. Cyprus' terrain resembles Lebanon's, and the Israel Defense Forces have commented on this according to Israeli media.
Israel and Cyprus conducted a joint military drill in 2022, and some of the exercises focused on multi-front battles and combating Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to Israeli media. Their latest drills occurred in May 2023 in Cyprus.
The Cypriot presidency stated on Thursday that Cyprus 'has never supported' and will not support any aggressive action or attack against any country.
What has Cyprus' role been in the Gaza war?
Cyprus has been keen to distance itself from any involvement in the Gaza war, highlighting its humanitarian efforts, such as facilitating aid shipments to Gaza and setting up an EU logistics hub in Cyprus to facilitate aid flow.
Cyprus has called out some of Israel's actions that have hindered the delivery of humanitarian aid in Gaza and has criticized Hamas for its attack on Israel. In April, it issued a joint statement with the UAE, condemning the deadly Israeli attack on the World Central Kitchen charity group that resulted in seven fatalities.
Is there a risk of Cyprus getting more deeply involved?
It remains uncertain if Cyprus will become more involved in the ongoing conflict, but experts suggest the potential for involvement increases with Israel's expanding military presence in Cyprus."
The island, marred by past regional conflicts, serves as a stark reminder of its close proximity to the tumultuous Middle East. In the year of 2019, a suspected Russian missile allegedly detonated over the northern region of Cyprus. Cypriot authorities suggest that the missile could be connected to ongoing military operations in Syria, as it reportedly landed only 15 (approximately 24km) miles north of the capital, Nicosia.
The idea of Israel utilizing Cypriot military bases, a move that Hezbollah has expressed concerns about, could escalate the Gaza conflict into the European Union, as per Mohammad Ali Shabani, Iran analyst and editor of Amwaj.media.
This would mark the first time an EU country is directly involved in an expanded Gaza war.
Some analysts deem the possibility of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict intensifying into an all-out war improbable, given that neither party seems to advocate for such an escalation.
Lina Khatib, associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London's Middle East and North Africa Programme, commented to CNN that Hezbollah's recent release of a 9-minute drone video, which showcases sensitive Israeli positions in and around Haifa, serves as a deterrent to Israel.
Khatib added that both Israel and Hezbollah have prepared military strategies for dealing with potential escalations, but neither party stands to benefit from all-out war. Khatib further stated that Hezbollah understands that war with Israel would be catastrophic for Lebanon and that there is no public support for such a scenario within the country.
The Biden administration is unlikely to allow Israel to fight a two-front war independently, Khatib predicted, and potential US involvement could bring in additional Iran-supported actors, along with the possibility of Iran itself becoming a target.
Khatib concluded that Iran wishes to avoid the high cost associated with such a scenario, and the US also seeks to avoid another Middle Eastern conflict, especially with upcoming presidential elections on the horizon.
CNN reporters Sharon Braithwaite, Tamara Qiblawi, Mostafa Salem, and Abbas Al Lawati contributed to the story.
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The potential involvement of Cyprus in the Israel-Hamas conflict could draw the Middle East into a wider European conflict, making the small European nation strategically important due to its location near the Eastern Mediterranean's geopolitical divide.
Given its geographical proximity to Middle Eastern conflicts and the increasing tensions in the region, the world should pay close attention to Cyprus' role in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and its relationship with Israel.
