Hezbollah issues threats against a small European nation.
"If Cyprus allows Israeli forces to utilize its airports and bases, the leader of an Iran-supported militant group predicts a potential conflict involving Cyprus, as he spoke on television yesterday. This statement comes a day after Israel suggested the possibility of a full-blown war in Lebanon was accelerating.
In response to these comments, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides denied any involvement in the conflict. He insisted that such statements are inaccurate and attempt to portray Cyprus as a participant in the war operations, stating unequivocally that this is not the case at all. He mentioned open lines of communication with the Lebanese and Iranian governments.
While experts believe a war between Israel and Hezbollah is improbable, the mere mention of Cyprus brings a new dimension to the Israel-Gaza predicament. This could draw a European Union nation into a conflict that has engulfed the Middle East, spotlighting Cyprus' relations with Israel.
Why is Cyprus strategically important?
Geographically situating it between the Middle East and Southern Europe, Cyprus, an island in the Eastern Mediterranean, is closer to conflicts in the Middle East compared to European power centers. Being slightly larger than the US state of Delaware, Cyprus is divided into two regions: a Greek-speaking southern part referred to as the Republic of Cyprus, and a Turkish-speaking region known as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The island's division mirrors the rivalry between regional adversaries Greece and Turkey. The Greek part of Cyprus, which is the only one recognized by most of the international community, was the intended target of the threats issued by the militant group's leader.
How close are Cyprus' ties with Israel?
Diplomatic relations between Cyprus and Israel began in 1960, post-British colonial rule, but an embassy in Tel Aviv was established only in 1994. Relations soured in the 1980s and 1990s over issues such as Israel's close relationship with Turkey and the Arab-Israeli conflict, with Cyprus favoring Arab states and advocating for a Palestinian state.
Relations improved in the late 1990s and 2000s as Israel looked to the Eastern Mediterranean for economic cooperation, particularly after the discovery of natural gas in the region. Experts suggest that Israel has also viewed Cyprus as an ally to counter regional threats, especially from Turkey and Iran-linked groups.
Over the years, Israel has reportedly used Cypriot territory to train its troops for potential wars with Hezbollah. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has claimed that Cyprus' terrain is similar to that of Lebanon.
The IDF conducted a joint military drill with Cypriot troops in 2022, some aspects of which focused on battling Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to Israeli media. More recently, their joint exercises took place in May 2023 in Cyprus.
What role has Cyprus played in the Gaza conflict?
Cyprus has endeavored to delete any suggestions of its involvement in the Gaza conflict, emphasizing its humanitarian efforts to provide aid to Gaza.
Christodoulides, the Cypriot President, stated, "Cyprus is not part of the problem; Cyprus is part of the solution." Cyprus began permitting aid ships to depart from its ports in March, as part of an international effort to establish a sea-based humanitarian aid route to Gaza.
The first maritime shipment to Gaza carried 200 tons of food, equivalent to approximately 500,000 meals. An EU logistics hub was also established in Cyprus to streamline aid delivery into Gaza.
Cyprus has publicly criticized some of Israel's actions in Gaza, particularly those obstructing the delivery of humanitarian aid. In April, it issued a joint statement with the UAE, expressing outrage over the deadly Israeli attack on the World Central Kitchen charity group that claimed seven lives.
The nation has also consistently condemned Hamas for its October 2020 attack on Israel.
How likely is it for Cyprus to become more embroiled?
Cyprus has experienced the repercussions of regional conflicts before, serving as a reminder of its proximity to the volatile Middle East. In 2019, a suspected Russian-made missile exploded over the northern region of Cyprus. Cypriot officials attributed the missile to military operations in Syria, stating it landed roughly 24km north of the capital Nicosia.
If Israel were to employ Cypriot bases for its military forces, as implied by the militant group's leader's warning, it could potentially escalate the Gaza war into the European Union for the first time, placing an EU nation directly into an expanded Gaza war.
While some experts believe the likelihood of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict spiraling into an all-out war is remote, as neither party appears eager for such an escalation."
"The release of a 9-minute drone video by Hezbollah, showcasing strategic locations within Israel, is intended as a warning to Israel, according to Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London. This video, disclosed on Tuesday, reveals both civilian and military sites in and near Haifa.
Khatib further stated that while it's typical for both Israel and Hezbollah to prepare for potential conflicts, neither party gains from an all-out war at the current moment. She clarified that Hezbollah is aware that a war with Israel would be catastrophic for Lebanon and that there's no desire for such a conflict within the country.
Khatib also suggested that the Biden administration is unlikely to let Israel wage a war single-handedly. She added that US intervention could potentially lead to the involvement of other Iran-backed entities, along with the possibility of Iran itself being a target.
Khatib emphasized that Iran aims to avoid the high cost of such a conflict. Moreover, she stated that the US wishes to avoid finding itself in another Middle Eastern predicament, especially given the upcoming presidential elections."
Contributions to this report were made by CNN's Sharon Braithwaite, Tamara Qiblawi, Mostafa Salem, and Abbas Al Lawati.
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If Israel uses Cyprus' airports and bases in potential conflicts with Hezbollah, the Middle East conflict couldspread to involve the European Union for the first time, potentially placing an EU nation directly into an expanded Gaza war.
Given its strategic location between Southern Europe and the Middle East, Cyprus has historically had close relations with both Israel and Arab states, but Israel has reportedly used Cypriot territory for military training and drills against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
