Hezbollah intensifies its counteractions against Israeli assaults, yet maintains a certain restraint in its actions.
On a striked-through Wednesday close to Tel Aviv, an unconventional and low-key occurrence took place. It signified numerous firsts: Hezbollah's first claimed launch of a ballistic missile towards Israel, the first infiltration of such a missile near Tel Aviv from Lebanon, and the first instance of leader Hassan Nasrallah following through on his promise to retaliate Israeli strikes on Beirut with attacks on Tel Aviv.
Despite Israel's robust air defense capabilities, a solo missile - even a ballistic one - was highly likely to be shot down.
The rationale behind launching a solitary missile is intriguing, given the escalating risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, along with their respective American and Iranian allies. The solitary shot at Tel Aviv could be interpreted as both a warning and a cease-and-desist. We possess formidable weapons and a powerful ally at our disposal, effectively stating, don't test us, implied Hezbollah. While Hezbollah's defenses remain far from completely dismantled - the group possesses a variety of medium and long-range missiles - Wednesday's strike seemed to serve as a clear warning of the group's undeterred might.
This strike represents a notch in Hezbollah's calculated escalation as it attempts to counter an intense Israeli campaign, pushing Hezbollah to cease its regular bombardment of Israel's northernmost territory.
It is crucial to remember the sequence of events that led us here. Hezbollah chose to support Palestinians in Gaza after Hamas' October 7 attacks against Israel. So far, it has steered clear of a full-scale war with Israel, limiting its involvement primarily to daily cross-border strikes that have prompted reprisals from the Israeli military.
Since then, more than 60,000 Israelis have fled their homes in the Northern region, but casualties remain relatively low. Reciprocally, the Lebanese side of the border also experienced evacuations due to Israeli strikes, as part of the crossfire.
The situation took a turn for the worse after a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights left 12 Druze children dead. Israel accused Hezbollah of the strike, which originated from Lebanon, but Hezbollah vehemently denies responsibility.
For Israeli authorities, however, the circumstance had become unsustainable. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shifted his focus from fighting Hamas in Gaza to confronting Hezbollah in Lebanon, with his extreme right-wing allies advocating for a confrontational stance.
Israel had waged war in Gaza with the dual objectives of weakening Hamas and recapturing the hostages it had taken. On September 16, Israel added a new objective: ensuring the safe return of residents from communities along its border with Lebanon to their homes.
The following day, hundreds of Hezbollah militants' pagers exploded across Lebanon. The following day, Hezbollah walkie-talkies also suffered similar fates, resulting in numerous fatalities and injuries. Israel has not claimed responsibility for these attacks, but CNN has learned that the explosions were the result of a joint operation between Mossad and the Israeli military.
Israel's attacks continued unabated. The following day, Israel launched an airstrike on a multi-story building in a Beirut suburb, where members of the Radwan Force had convened, resulting in the deaths of its leader, Ibrahim Aqil, and other high-ranking officials. Over the past week, another airstrike claimed the life of Ibrahim Qubaisi, another prominent Hezbollah figure who led the group's missile units.
Reeling from the most significant blows yet to its military infrastructure, Hezbollah has also subtly expanded its war aims. It claims the ballistic missile struck on Wednesday in support of Palestinians in Gaza and, fundamentally, in defense of Lebanon and its people - an implicit acknowledgment that it is now actively engaged in defending its own territory.
While both sides have refrained from declaring war on each other, their heightened aims may render the possibility of a ceasefire moot.
Hezbollah insists that a ceasefire in Lebanon will not be declared until a ceasefire is in effect in Gaza. Netanyahu's government, conversely, insists that a ceasefire in Gaza is not an option - its pivot towards Lebanon further weakening the possibility of any agreement being reached.
Determining the next move for both parties is challenging. Neither side holds much ground for retreat.
As international calls for de-escalation increase, many Lebanese residents have preemptively relocated, fearing the success of these attempts. Lebanon's Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib stated that Israel's offensive has displaced up to half a million people. Beirut's streets are gradually emptying as foreign embassies urge their citizens to leave the country, and many Lebanese people are migrating further north.
After years of crises, the growing military conflict inflicts additional suffering on Lebanon's already weakened population. The fact that neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese authorities have officially declared this a war offers little comfort to those currently under siege and experiencing displacement.
The strike on Tel Aviv, despite being a solitary act, showcased Hezbollah's ability to reach the heart of Israel, raising concerns in the Middleeast and beyond about the potential escalation of the conflict. The situation in the Middleeast remains tense, with both Israel and Hezbollah maintaining volatile positions, potentially leading to wider instability in the region.
