Heating pump demand drops by half
Quickly it should go well with the temperature transition, but property owners seem to be postponing the modernization of their heating systems apparently. Not only are heat pumps selling significantly worse. The heating industry cannot accept this.
In the first half of the year, significantly fewer heat pumps were sold than in the previous year's period. The Federal Association of German Heating Industry (BDH) reported this. Accordingly, 90,000 pumps were sold, which corresponds to a minus of 54 percent compared to the previous year's period. The association expects a maximum sales volume of 200,000 heat pumps by the end of the year.
The long-term goal of the building energy law (GEG), which came into effect at the beginning of the year, is to make heating in Germany more climate-friendly and protect consumers from price spikes in oil and gas if the CO2 pricing increases. For self-consuming property owners, there is even a speed bonus for the early exchange of outdated fossil heating systems.
The managing director of the BDH, Markus Staudt, is skeptical about planning certainty: "We see that the market has significantly cooled down since the strong demand in 2023." The communal heating planning, which cities must submit in the coming years, brings uncertainty with it. "In this confusing situation, people are postponing the heating system modernization more."
Contractors are ready
Manufacturers sold 43 percent fewer heating systems in the first half of the year than in the same period in 2023. Among other things, heat pumps, but also condensing boilers or pellet heating systems were affected.
A survey by the BDH comes to the preliminary result that manufacturers assess the market development of various products predominantly pessimistically. The association hopes, according to a statement, that further positive impulses for the energy transition, for example through an expansion of funding, will be created. The central lever for market stimulation remains for the BDH, however, strengthening consumer trust in heating system modernization.
There is an attractive funding, all technical solutions are available, and the craft trades have capacities. "These are good conditions to invest in heating system modernization now," Staudt announced.
Despite the attractive funding and availability of technical solutions, the sale of heat pumps has significantly decreased, with a 54% drop compared to the previous year. This trend aligns with the observation that the Heating Law's goal of making heating in Germany more climate-friendly and consumer-protective is facing challenges. The managing director of the BDH notes that the market has cooled down, leading to postponement of heating system modernization by many property owners, affecting not only heat pumps but also other heating systems like condensing boilers and pellet heating systems.
