Hamas reports deaths in the Gaza Strip every day. But how reliable are the figures?

Where do the death toll figures in the Gaza Strip come from?
How are the figures collected?
How credible is the data?
Why are the figures disputed?
What does Israel say about the death toll in the Gaza Strip?
How are the statistics assessed by experts and aid organizations?

Questions and answers - Hamas reports deaths in the Gaza Strip every day. But how reliable are the figures?

Since Hamas invaded southern Israel on October 7 and left again after a massacre, Israel has been attacking the Gaza Strip from the air and on the ground. Thousands of people have died as a result. The health authority in the coastal strip publishes data on casualties on a daily basis. However, there is international criticism. The Ministry of Health is considered by many to be untrustworthy due to its contacts with Hamas. Israel even accuses it of inflating the figures.

But what is the truth? How credible are the statistics and how are they recorded? An overview:

Where do the death toll figures in the Gaza Strip come from?

Media around the world, including stern, cite data from the Hamas-run Ministry of Health for the casualty figures in the Gaza Strip. This is because it is the only data available on casualties in the coastal strip. United Nations aid organizations and the International Red Cross also publish data - but also on the basis of statistics from the Gaza Authority.

How are the figures collected?

The Ministry of Health receives the data on deaths from the hospitals in the coastal strip. The hospitals document the numbers of injured and dead people admitted and then transfer them to a digital computer system that the health authority can access. This includes the name, an identification number, the date of admission to the hospital, the type of injury and the condition of the person, according to screenshots obtained by the Associated Press news agency. In addition, the Ministry of Health collects death figures provided by the Red Cross. The statistics are collected and published every hour.

Names, ages or places of death are not disclosed. However, the Ministry of Health has made an exception due to criticism of the data: In October, it published a 212-page document listing all those killed up to that point - names, gender, age and identification number included. It lists more than 6700 people. Almost 300 people were missing from the list because their identity could not yet be verified, the health authorities said at the time.

How credible is the data?

There are different opinions on this. Experts are of the opinion that numbers are easier to publish than names. According to an analysis by the weekly newspaper "Zeit", the document is at least considered plausible. The age of those killed corresponds to the age structure of the population in the Gaza Strip. The majority of those who died were men between the ages of 20 and 40 - a typical age for fighters. Women and children are less common among the victims compared to the male victims.

Why are the figures disputed?

Because of the fierce fighting between Israel and the Gaza Strip, the figures can never be independently checked and verified immediately. In addition, it is not entirely clear whether the deaths are civilian casualties or whether the Hamas fighters killed are included. So far, Hamas has not published any separate statistics on the fighters killed. The authorities have also not said anything about how the people were killed, whether in an Israeli air strike or by misguided Palestinian rockets.

This is one of the reasons why the statistics are viewed skeptically or criticized internationally.

Doubts were sown after the missile strike on the Al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City, among other things. Hamas directly reported 500 deaths and blamed the Israeli air force. In addition, rumors initially circulated that a rocket had hit the hospital. None of this was confirmed. Today, it is considered likely that a misguided Palestinian rocket hit a parking lot next to the hospital. At the time, European intelligence services assumed that around a dozen people had been killed. The US government estimates 100 to 300 dead, Hamas speaks of 471.

What does Israel say about the death toll from the Gaza Strip?

An Israeli military spokesman accused the authorities in Gaza of inflating the death toll. The Gaza authorities had also lied about the number of victims in the past, the spokesman said, citing the rocket strike at the Al-Ahli Arab hospital eleven days after the massacre carried out by Hamas in southern Israel on October 7.(Read more here.)

However, another military spokesman revised these accusations in a press briefing at the beginning of December. The ratio between Hamas fighters killed and civilian casualties is 1:2, he said, adding that there were twice as many civilians for every 5,000 fighters Israel assumed were dead at the time. "I'm not saying it's not bad that we have a ratio of two to one," said the military representative, but added that Hamas was using civilians as shields. The Hamas-run health ministry spoke of almost 15,900 deaths that day. The Israeli military representative described the figures as more or less correct. "Hopefully (the rate) will be much lower in the coming phase of the war."

Israel publishes its own casualty figures for the Gaza Strip. However, they are based on estimates.

How are the statistics assessed by experts and aid organizations?

"In war, information is always the subject of propaganda. It is often used as a weapon," Therese Pettersson, Research Coordinator at the Faculty of Peace and Conflict Studies at Uppsala University, tells Die Zeit. Pettersson runs a renowned, independent database on the victims of wars and conflicts and knows from experience "that early figures from ongoing conflicts often have to be corrected later". However, the Gaza Ministry of Health has proven to be a trustworthy source in the past.

Since Hamas occupied the coastal strip, there have been three major phases of war in which Israel attacked the Gaza Strip from the air. In all cases, United Nations investigators have checked the casualty statistics with on-site research, documents and interviews with the bereaved - and have come to a similar conclusion as the Hamas health authority. The number of victims differs by less than four percent and is therefore almost identical.

Aid organizations repeatedly emphasize that the data from the Gaza Strip can deviate slightly from reality. Due to the fierce attacks, it is currently impossible to check and verify the data on a daily basis. "It's worth noting that the figures released since October 7 are generally consistent with the level of killings one would expect given the intensity of the bombardment in such a densely populated area," the Israel and Palestine director at Human Rights Watch told Reuters. "These numbers are consistent with what you might expect, given what we see on the ground through witness testimony, through satellite imagery and others."

A study published in the journal "The Lancet" at the beginning of December came to the same conclusion. According to the study, there is no evidence that Hamas and the Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip are inflating or even falsifying the data.

Read also:

Despite the criticism towards the Ministry of Health in Gaza for being untrustworthy due to its ties with Hamas, international organizations such as the UN and the Red Cross still rely on their data for casualty figures in the Gaza Strip.
The United Nations and aid organizations like the Red Cross collect their statistics on casualties in the Gaza Strip based on data provided by the Ministry of Health, as well as their own observations and interviews.
Israel accuses the health authority in Gaza of inflating the number of victims, and a military spokesperson stated that there were twice as many civilians for every 5,000 fighters assumed to be dead.
Therese Pettersson, Research Coordinator at the Faculty of Peace and Conflict Studies at Uppsala University, emphasizes that in war, information is often used as a weapon and can be manipulated, but the Gaza Ministry of Health has proven to be a reliable source in the past.
The Israeli military representative described the figures released by the Gaza Ministry of Health as "more or less correct," and international organizations such as Human Rights Watch and The Lancet have also come to similar conclusions, suggesting that the data is consistent with what would be expected given the intensity of the bombardment in the densely populated Gaza Strip.
Children are among the victims in the Gaza Strip, and media outlets like the Associated Press have reported on the impact of the conflict on children, citing data from the health authority in Gaza.
Women have also been affected by the conflict in the Gaza Strip, and reports by organizations like the International Committee of the Red Cross have highlighted the need for humanitarian aid to support displaced women and families.

Source: www.stern.de