Hamas bet on the misery of Gaza's residents. Netanyahu exploited this opportunity.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and his military reacted to Sinwar's attack of terror that caused more than 1,200 deaths and over 220 hostages, declaring war and vowing to eliminate Hamas.
As expected, many regional diplomats argue that Israel's military campaign is unsuccessful in getting rid of Hamas, even as the number of Palestinian deaths exceeds 36,000. Hamas is not only people and structures, but also an ideology.
Now Sinwar, who speaks fluent Hebrew and has a deep understanding of Israeli politics, believes he still holds the upper hand in this war, as he engages in high-stakes negotiations with Israel for a ceasefire and hostage deal.
It's said he told other Hamas leaders, "We have the Israelis exactly where we want them" in leaked messages reported by The Wall Street Journal. He seems to justify the deaths of Palestinian civilians as a "necessary sacrifice" according to the messages.
In a traditional war scenario, Sinwar could be deemed delusional; Israel has a significant advantage in conventional weapons. However, Israel's deadly weapons are becoming a disadvantage in this asymmetrical conflict, and Sinwar skillfully leverages Israel's troubled past that he employs against it.
Due to the significant loss of civilian lives and pain endured by Israel in its pursuit of Hamas, Netanyahu now faces a potential indictment for war crimes from the ICC, the world's leading court – much like Sinwar. The consequences for Netanyahu are far more severe as he is a prominent world leader whose influence would drastically diminish if the ICC issues warrants.
Netanyahu dismisses the ICC as anti-Semitic, but this hasn't mitigated the damage to his reputation in the court of public opinion. Meanwhile, Sinwar can sit back and benefit from the international outrage over Palestinian suffering.
Shortly before this, university campuses throughout the United States and Europe erupted in unrest in response to the cost of Israel's war on Gaza residents, where humanitarian groups warn of a looming hunger crisis.
In this instance, a generation of Palestinians was able to witness an influential political force opposing what they felt was an overpowering force supporting Israeli interests.
In a typical election year, this might not have had much impact, but Biden finds himself in a difficult situation as the US is holding a presidential election. He's vowed steadfast support for Israel and continues to provide weapons to Israel's military, but If he continues this path, Biden risks losing crucial votes in swing states due to a younger group of left-leaning Democrats who reject the status quo in Gaza.
This provides a push for Sinwar. His negotiating team has become more resolute: initially seeming open to compromise, they're now demanding a permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. He also seems to have brought the prospect of a Palestinian state closer – a major development following decades of inaction.
US regional allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, have set an "irreversible" course for a two-state solution to win their support in helping rebuild Gaza. And even if Netanyahu's far-right ministers reject Palestinian statehood, some European partners are growing weary of Israel's intransigence.
In recent times, Ireland, Spain, Norway, and Portugal – frustrated by Netanyahu's refusal to make peace – have officially recognized Palestinian statehood. This marks a significant shift from their earlier cautious approach to Netanyahu's war rhetoric.
Israel has lashed out against the four European countries, but Sinwar remains unscathed beneath Gaza. He enjoys the destruction he's instigated and the repercussions he anticipated.
Hamas's ideology prospers due to the current Israeli assault. The war Sinwar launched has brought Palestinian suffering to a new level. As a result of this, Netanyahu has played directly into Sinwar's narrative.
None of this implies Sinwar will be a popular leader in Gaza during his lifetime. But his intense bloodshed has allowed him to connect with global condemnation. He manipulates the Democratic world against itself, using the very values that advanced nations cherish: respect for life and fairness.
From a vulnerable position, he tries to convert every impediment into an advantage. As Israel prepares for its imminent Rafah operation, he attempts to stop it by claiming acceptance of an Egyptian peace deal.
Sinwar's gambits were foreseeable. Israel's failure for decades to address Palestinians' security and economic necessities outside of its own interests laid the foundation for Sinwar's gamble.
Seemingly, Sinwar's influence during the war is being seen as a known fact regarding Gaza and the ongoing conflict. In Israel recently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated, "I don't think it's anyone except the Hamas leaders in Gaza who can actually make decisions."
Even if Sinwar desired to seek guidance from Hamas's rich council members residing in Doha, getting together with leaders in Iran and Turkey, the possibility they can settle the differences through in-depth discussions is nearly zero. Communicating freely away from Israel's watchful gaze is an impossibility.
During the crucial days before Northern Ireland's groundbreaking 1998 Good Friday Peace Agreement between the IRA's political wing Sinn Fein and the British government, I observed the group's top leaders emerge from the negotiations, deep in secretive, half-whispers, silently pacing contiguous gardens.
However, such dialogues could be a luxury that Sinwar doesn't have, or is scared to pursue, no matter where he may be hiding in Gaza. Moreover, like any leader set on demonstrating his point, he's unlikely to back down unless his primary conditions are met.
His recent remark that Israel would have to battle for Rafah implies that he continues to engage in negotiations.
Blinken didn't explicitly mention Sinwar in his remarks on Tuesday, but it was unnecessary. Those in the room had no trouble deciphering who he was referencing when he added, "That is what we are waiting on."
And if messages asking for a settlement are reaching Sinwar, he will also realize that they hold another function - an effort to turn Gaza's citizens against him.
As much as Sinwar has exerted psychological control over Israel's leadership, he is also vulnerable. And if past occurrences serve as a guide, he might wager that he can outwit Netanyahu in terms of mental manipulation.
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The international community is closely watching the situation in Gaza, as the Middle East becomes a hotbed of conflict once again. Despite Israel's military campaign, the world is concerned about the impact on the already suffering population of Gaza.
In light of the ongoing conflict and the high number of civilian casualties, there are calls for Netanyahu to face war crime charges at the International Criminal Court. Meanwhile, Sinwar is leveraging this global outrage to his advantage, using it to further his negotiating position in the region.
