- Guru of Preference: Novel "Stability Mechanism" Becomes Feasible
Political analyst André Brodocz believes that a partnership between the CDU and the Left may be feasible in light of tricky majority dynamics within the brand new Thuringian state legislature. "If it's their only shot at having the CDU in the role of Minister-President, they'd probably pressure their counterparts in Berlin to figure out a solution," Brodocz said to Deutschlandfunk during an interview. Brodocz, a political theory educator at the University of Erfurt, mentioned a compatibility resolution, which, theoretically, rules out partnerships with the Left for the CDU. Moreover, national elections are scheduled for the upcoming year.
Brodocz brought up a historical precedent in the Thuringian parliament: Following a political crisis after the 2019 state election, a minority government made up of the red-red-green coalition was established. Despite the CDU cooperating with this government thanks to a "stability mechanism," the agreement didn't last long. Brodocz commented, "And one was creative, one didn't tolerate the Left back then, but invented a 'stability mechanism.' Perhaps something comparable will happen again, but reversed."
The extremist-right party AfD was the most powerful force in the state election on Sunday, with an estimated 32.8% of the votes. However, they're unlikely to form a government because all other elected parties refuse to work with the party deemed securely right-wing extremist by the constitutional protection agency.
The CDU finished with 23.6% of the votes, followed by the newly-established alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) with 15.8%. The Left, led by Minister-President Bodo Ramelow, only managed 13.1% of the votes. The SPD just barely made it into the state parliament with 6.1% of the votes. The Greens and FDP did not manage to get elected.
There was hope that the election results would be enough for a coalition between the CDU, BSW, and SPD. However, the preliminary result does not suggest a majority for this alliance.
Given the current political dynamics in Thuringia and the unfavorable coalition options, the AfD might find itself in a strategic position. If other parties continue to refuse collaborations with the AfD, they might struggle to form a majority government, potentially leading to prolonged political instability in the state.
