Global political climate weighs on climate conference in Dubai
Another climate conference and an important one at that: In Dubai on the Persian Gulf, more than 190 countries will have to decide on a clear climate course correction at the COP28 conference from November 30, as they discuss the first major review of the implementation of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. And there is not enough left to limit global warming to 2 degrees or, better still, 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
The international community agreed the 1.5 degree target in Paris to avoid exceeding dangerous tipping points with irreversible consequences and avert the most catastrophic consequences of climate change. "Humanity has opened the door to hell," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently. However, the conference is not under a good star, as the two-week meeting is burdened by a number of issues:
Wars
The wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip have pushed the climate crisis out of the headlines. The question is whether the issue will also be put on the back burner by governments involved in arms deliveries or war diplomacy.
"In 2020, we were also worried that the coronavirus pandemic would push the issue of climate change aside," said Petteri Taalas, head of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to the German press agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur. Nevertheless, there have been quite successful climate conferences. "Of course, the war against Ukraine and the Gaza war can cast a shadow over the climate conference, but climate change will still be the biggest challenge of the century if we don't get it under control."
Greta and radical climate activists
Climate activist Greta Thunberg is currently causing controversy. At climate demonstrations, she speaks of oppressed Palestinians fighting for justice in connection with the Gaza war and leaves the stage to a Palestine activist who accuses Israel of genocide.
The Fridays for Future movement, which Thunberg set in motion with her school strike in 2018, has distanced itself from her. There are fears that this will divide the climate movement and make it less effective. Radical groups such as the Last Generation, who stick themselves to streets or museums or smear the Brandenburg Gate with paint, for example, are also putting the fight for the climate in a bad light for many people.
The conference venue and the COP President
The conference is being held in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates. It is one of the countries with the highest per capita emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2. At more than 20 tons per capita, they are around three times as high as in Germany. Conference President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber is also the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc). The company is planning to massively expand its oil and gas production.
According to a UN report, the production plans of all governments with oil and gas industries are more than twice as high as would be permitted by 2030 if the 1.5 degree target is to be achieved. "But we should look in the mirror," said Taalas. "Who is using fossil fuels? Very heavily Europe, the USA and large Asian countries. The question is whether to punish the drug seller or the drug user."
The data situation: much more ambition needed
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate-damaging greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 in order to meet the 1.5 degree target. However, according to UN calculations, without new ambitions, there will be a slight increase by 2030. Greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.2 percent from 2021 to 2022, setting a new record. "We are currently not heading for 1.5 to 2 degrees of warming, but for 2.5 to 3 degrees," said Taalas.
The data from the Global Stocktake is sobering. The pace must be increased rapidly everywhere: A faster end to fossil fuels oil, gas and coal and deforestation of rainforests, greater curbs on other greenhouse gases such as methane, a faster switch to sustainable agriculture - and billions to support poorer countries already facing the consequences of climate change, with droughts, floods, sea level rise and devastating storms.
The rays of hope
Some progress has been made since the Paris climate agreement: while the world was still on the path to 4 degrees of warming in 2015, it is now closer to 2.5 to 3 degrees.
The USA and China also want to work together to ensure that electricity from sustainable sources such as solar and wind is doubled worldwide by 2030 and that there is better battery storage. They are the biggest greenhouse gas emitters. Their measures are particularly significant.
In its annual outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports for the first time that demand for coal, gas and oil is likely to peak before 2030 and then decline. This is due to the good expansion of renewable energies and structural changes. The proportion of fossil fuels used for energy production, which has been at 80 percent for years, will fall to 73 percent by 2030, she wrote in October.
Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) sees opportunities for the gradual global phase-out of all fossil fuels to be bindingly agreed. At the 2021 climate conference in Glasgow, India and China pushed through the word phase-down instead of phase-out in the summit resolution at the last minute.
Nevertheless, WMO head Taalas hopes that large countries such as China, India and Brazil will announce more ambitious climate protection plans in Dubai. "I used to be a pessimist, but I have been positively surprised by governments and technological developments," he said.
Despite the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, affecting global attention, the COP28 conference in Dubai remains crucial for deciding on a climate course correction. Countries must review and enhance their commitments towards limiting global warming, aiming for 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, as previously agreed in the Paris Accord.
The climate activist Greta Thunberg's controversial stance on wars and diplomacy might have divided opinions within the climate movement, raising concerns about its potential impact on its overall effectiveness.
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Source: www.dpa.com
