France election: High voter turnout in second round
According to the polls, the right-wing populist party Rassemblement National (RN) led by Marine Le Pen was the favorite in the election, but it is difficult to estimate if they will reach the absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly with 577 seats.
Most polling stations close at 18:00, in large cities it closes at 20:00. The first projections will be published at 20:00.
At least 50 constituencies are predicted to have a very close election result. Elected according to majority vote system, meaning the candidate with the most votes in a constituency enters the National Assembly. The loser's votes are not considered.
According to the latest polls before the election, the RN could get between 170 and 230 seats. This would be a significant increase compared to the last election in 2022, where the right-wing populists got 89 seats. However, it would not be enough for an absolute majority.
In such a case, the formation of three blocks in the National Assembly would be noticeable, which could hinder the government and plunge the country into a political crisis: The right-wing populists together with their allies, the Left Bloc, and the Center-Left of French President Emmanuel Macron.
Macron called a meeting with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and the leaders of the government camp for 18:30.
It is considered likely that Borne will resign in case of a defeat of the government camp. Macron could accept the resignation and keep his current cabinet as a caretaker government temporarily, at least until the Olympics, which end on August 11.
Results from the overseas territories, which voted on Saturday, started coming in on Sunday. In Guadeloupe, Martinique, and French Guiana, the left-green alliance emerged as the winner - which cannot be considered a national trend. In New Caledonia, a supporter of independence was elected for the first time since 1986.
Macron unexpectedly called for a new election after the triumph of the RN in the European election on June 9. In case of an absolute majority of the RN in the parliament after the Sunday election, Macron could be politically forced to appoint their leader Jordan Bardella as the new prime minister.
The RN and its allies got 33% of the votes in the first round. The left-green alliance New Popular Front was in second place with 28%. The government camp had around 20%.
Since 76 mandates were already distributed in the first round on June 30, only the voters of the remaining 501 constituencies are called to cast their votes. All candidates who received at least 12.5% of the votes of the registered voters in the first round are allowed to participate in the runoff.
Through the tactical withdrawal of over 200 candidates from the left-wing New Popular Front and the government camp, the absolute majority for the RN has become less likely. The candidates withdrew to prevent a landslide victory of the RN. However, it cannot be ruled out how many voters will follow the recommendations of the candidates who withdrew.
The height of voter turnout and the number of invalid votes are significant. In the first round of the parliamentary election a week ago, voter turnout was at 66.7 percent.
- In the midst of this political uncertainty, French Education Minister Gabriel Attal expressed his concerns about the potential impact of the election outcome on the country's educational policies.
- On Sunday, despite the high stakes of the French election, voter turnout was lower than expected, reaching only 60% by mid-day.
- The Rassemblement National, led by Marine Le Pen, is hoping to increase their seats significantly from the 89 they gained in the 2022 election, but falling short of an absolute majority.
- If the RN fails to secure an absolute majority on Sunday, the political landscape of France could be in for a crisis, as the Right-wing populists, the Left Bloc, and the Center-Left of President Emmanuel Macron form three distinct blocks in the National Assembly.
- The low voter turnout on Sunday could potentially benefit the far-right RN, as their voters are known to be more dedicated in showing up at polling stations.
- While Marie Le Pen and her RN party celebrate their strong performance in the first round with 33% of the votes, it remains to be seen if they can reach the critical threshold of 289 seats in the National Assembly during the second round of the French election.
