Bavaria's solid fortifications and turbulent balloting results.

Voting process - Fortifications and mishaps: Citizens' ballots in Bavaria

A glance at the election map for Bavaria in the European elections reveals acquainted faces as all districts and free cities are painted black. However, upon closer examination, there are noteworthy discrepancies between the regions, with powerful fortresses, weak points, and marked declines. Below are the figures.

CSU

Unlike the state election and the previous European election, all districts appear black again. In their stronghold of Rhön-Grabfeld in Upper Franconia, the party of Minister President Markus Söder achieves 48.9 percent. In contrast, Munich only offers them 27.1 percent, enough for the top spot there. Bavaria-wide, the CSU stands at 39.7 percent.

At the regional level, the Christian Social Union fares best in Lower Bavaria with 45.2 percent. They had previously lost many votes in the state election to the Free Voters. The CSU's decline in Lower Bavaria is remarkable: a decrease of more than 8.2 percentage points compared to the previous European election - the highest jumps belong to the AfD and the Free Voters. The weakest CSU is in Upper Bavaria and Middle Franconia.

Greens

Five years ago, the Greens still won the most votes in the cities of Munich, Würzburg, and Erlangen; today, they only manage second places. They perform best in Munich with 23.7 percent, worst in Freyung-Grafenau with 4.2 percent. The most significant decline is found in Lindau, where they lose 10.8 percentage points compared to the last European election. No gains can be made anywhere at the district level.

The most powerful stronghold of the Greens is Upper Bavaria, where they reach 15.6 percent. The weakest spot is Lower Bavaria with 6.3 percent. The average in Bavaria is 11.8 percent. The Greens are particularly influential in the larger cities, where they often claim second place. This includes Munich and its surroundings, Nuremberg and its environs, Augsburg, Regensburg, and Würzburg, as well as Landshut, Rosenheim, and Passau City.

AfD

The AfD delivers its best performance in rural areas. Apart from the mentioned Green strongholds, it is generally the second strongest force. This also applies at the state level with 12.6 percent. The most significant vote share is in the Regen district with 20.2 percent, while the lowest is in Munich City with 6.7 percent. Gains can be made everywhere on the district level, strongest in Freyung-Grafenau, where they increase by 8.3 percentage points, and weakest in Munich with 0.7 percent.

The strongest administrative districts for the AfD are Lower Bavaria with 16.7 percent and the Upper Palatinate with 15.2 percent. In Upper Bavaria, it is only 10.1. The AfD is holding the second place in five out of the seven administrative districts.

SPD

The SPD records its best score of 14.1 percent in Fürth. Their worst result is 4.5 percent in Straubing-Bogen. The party avoids the decline that the Greens suffered. The most significant loss is 3.9 percentage points in Kronach, while the most significant gain is 1.4 points in Landshut City, where they still only come in fourth place. On occasion, the SPD also manages to grab second place - for example in Schwabach and Coburg.

The Hubert Aiwanger party posts their strongest results in Lower Bavaria with 10.1% and the Upper Palatinate with 9.3%, but remains behind the AfD in both regions. This also applies to their stronghold of Cham, where they receive 14.3%. The weak point is Nuremberg city with 2.2%, but the Free Voters manage to take second place in one district: in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, they need only 12.6% to achieve this. This is also the district where they gained the most. In the Oberallgau, they lose 3.2 percentage points particularly strongly.

FDP

The FDP records its best result with 7.6 percent in Starnberg, where they gain 1.8 percentage points. They are weakest in Cham with 1.8 %. However, even in Starnberg, they only manage fifth place.

Other

The parties listed under "Other" typically play a more substantial role in European elections, as there is no 5% threshold. Across Bavaria, these parties collectively attained 14.8%, with a high of 20.6% in Würzburg City, where they also recorded the largest increase. In Neustadt an der Waldnaab, it was still 10%.

Voter turnout

The highest voter turnout was in the Starnberg district with 73.8%. The next highest percentages were in Erlangen City and Würzburg Land with 73.6% and 73.3% respectively. The lowest voter turnout was in Schweinfurt City with 52.1%, followed by Straubing with 53.5% and Hof with 55.2%.

Most cities have had lower voter turnout compared to their surrounding districts, but Erlangen is an exception. The possible reason could be the local initiative for the Stadt-Umland-Bahn in Erlangen, which was also voted on that day, encouraging more voters to participate.

In terms of overall voter turnout, Upper Franconia is at the top with 67.6%, while other districts and cities are generally below the Bavarian average of 65.5%. Oberfranken comes in slightly below at 65.4%, with the Upper Palatinate and Swabia at 65.0% and 63.6% respectively. The lowest voter turnout can be found in Lower Bavaria, with only 60.6%.

It's unclear if the floods had any significant impact on the election results. While there have been changes compared to the previous European elections, there doesn't seem to be a clear connection with specific areas that were heavily affected. The fluctuations in the results are higher than usual.