European Union - Forecast: CSU falling below 40% in Bavaria
The Christian Social Union (CSU) is the frontrunner in the European election in Bavaria, with 38.6% of the votes, as per Infratest Dimap's calculations for Bayerischer Rundfunk. While they haven't managed to hold on to their 40.7% result from five years back, they have surpassed their 2023 state election's performance of 37.0%.
The Greens trail the CSU with 18.45%, having dropped from 19.1% in 2019. The AfD takes the third spot with 11.0% of the votes, up from 8.5% in the same period. The Social Democrats (SPD) are in fourth at 9.1%, which is just a slight improvement from their 9.3% in 2019. The Free Voters follow with 7.1%, a jump from 5.3% in the prior year.
Next on the list is the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with 4.0%, compared to 3.4% in 2019. The Bavarian State Party (BSW) secured 3.9%, while Volt increased from 0.7% to 2.8%. Finally, the Christian Democratic Union of Berlin (OEDP) gained 2.5% this time around, compared to 3.1% in 2019.
Nearly 10.4 million people were invited to cast their votes in Bavaria. This includes around 220,000 16- and 17-year-olds who can now vote for the first time, thanks to a reduction in the voting age. Besides the 9.57 million Germans, there were somewhere around 822,000 people with a different EU nationality eligible to participate. They were free to choose whether to vote in Bavaria or in their home member state. The voter turnout was 64%, marking a substantial increase from 60.8% in 2019.
The Infratest Dimap estimates closely align with the latest survey predictions leading up to the election.
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The CSU's potential decline below 40% in the upcoming state election in Bavaria is an intriguing extrapolation from their current EU election performance. Despite falling short of their 2019 results, the CSU remains the leading party in Bavaria, surpassing their predicted state election performance. The European elections in Bavaria are significant not only for German parties like the CSU and the AfD, but also for European parties participating in the EU elections. The situation in Bavaria could serve as a trendsetter for other state elections within Europe. The EU welcomes the increased voter turnout in Bavaria, reflecting a greater interest in political participation across the continent. In the European context, Bavaria's election results may influence the balance of power among EU member states.
