European Union - Forecast: CSU falling below 40% in Bavaria
The Christian Social Union (CSU) is the frontrunner in the European election in Bavaria, with 38.6% of the votes, as per Infratest Dimap's calculations for Bayerischer Rundfunk. While they haven't managed to hold on to their 40.7% result from five years back, they have surpassed their 2023 state election's performance of 37.0%.
The Greens trail the CSU with 18.45%, having dropped from 19.1% in 2019. The AfD takes the third spot with 11.0% of the votes, up from 8.5% in the same period. The Social Democrats (SPD) are in fourth at 9.1%, which is just a slight improvement from their 9.3% in 2019. The Free Voters follow with 7.1%, a jump from 5.3% in the prior year.
Next on the list is the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with 4.0%, compared to 3.4% in 2019. The Bavarian State Party (BSW) secured 3.9%, while Volt increased from 0.7% to 2.8%. Finally, the Christian Democratic Union of Berlin (OEDP) gained 2.5% this time around, compared to 3.1% in 2019.
Nearly 10.4 million people were invited to cast their votes in Bavaria. This includes around 220,000 16- and 17-year-olds who can now vote for the first time, thanks to a reduction in the voting age. Besides the 9.57 million Germans, there were somewhere around 822,000 people with a different EU nationality eligible to participate. They were free to choose whether to vote in Bavaria or in their home member state. The voter turnout was 64%, marking a substantial increase from 60.8% in 2019.
The Infratest Dimap estimates closely align with the latest survey predictions leading up to the election.
