Following Thuringia's electoral event, political groups anticipate intricate coalition building processes.
The recent election results in Thuringia have sparked significant interest due to the significant victory of the Thuringian branch of the AfD, classified as right-wing extremist by the domestic intelligence agency, headed by Björn Höcke. Preliminary results showed a clear win with 32.8% for the AfD. The CDU followed closely with 23.6%, while the Alliance for Progress and Social Justice (BSW) came in third with 15.8%, the Left Party with 13.1%, and the SPD with a modest 6.1%.
Given that other parties refuse to form coalitions with the AfD, the CDU, BSW, and potentially another party are now engaged in coalition formation discussions. A CDU, BSW, and SPD three-party coalition is not viable, but a CDU, BSW, and Left Party coalition is feasible. Alternatively, a minority government led by the CDU is also an option.
This situation poses challenges for the CDU, who have consistently opposed collaborations with the Left Party, having passed a resolution of incompatibility in 2018. The coalition negotiations are further polarized by the BSW's demand to incorporate foreign and security policy matters in the discussions.
Voigt once again commented on this issue on Monday, stating, "Global politics are not shaped in Thuringia." However, He also announced meetings with BSW and the SPD, implying that they will explore common ground.
BSW's leading candidate, Wolf, emphasized on German radio that Thuringia must send a clear message for diplomatic solutions to the Russian conflict in Ukraine and against the controversial deployment of US medium-range missiles in Germany.
Before the Thuringia and Saxony elections, the BSW party leader, Sahra Wagenknecht, had demanded the withdrawal of US missiles from Germany as a prerequisite for a potential coalition. The CDU strongly opposed this proposal.
On Monday, Wagenknecht confirmed in Berlin that she expects clear stances from the state governments on foreign policy concerns. She stated that those interested in forming a coalition with them must engage with her as well. This includes Voigt.
Despite her absence from the coalition negotiation table, BSW's Thuringia leader, Wolf, confirmed on German radio that Berlin would be coordinating with Thuringia. Wolf also acknowledged that the Thuringia situation following the election is complex but that the BSW is handling it responsibly.
The Left Party and SPD in Thuringia view the CDU and BSW as having the mandate to govern. Left Party state leader Ulrike Grande-Röthig stated in Berlin that other parties will evaluate the offers. She further assured that the Left Party in Thuringia will maintain responsibility in handling the votes entrusted to them.
SPD leader Georg Maier shared a similar perspective. He stated in Berlin that the Thuringian CDU is responsible for forming the government and must present a solution. In turn, the BSW must clarify whether its Saarland leadership dominates its Thuringian branch.
Meanwhile, the AfD has reiterated its demand for participation in the government formation. "Barriers are undemocratic," AfD federal chairwoman Alice Weidel stated in Berlin, referring to the CDU's incompatibility resolution against the AfD.
The European Union may express concerns over the potential cooperation between the CDU, BSW, and the Left Party in the Thuringian government, given its historical opposition to collaborations with left-wing parties and the Left Party's stance on foreign policy issues such as the withdrawal of US missiles.
Given the EU's position on extremist parties and the classification of the AfD as right-wing extremist, the success of coalition negotiations without including the AfD could lead to discussions on the EU's stance towards the newly formed Thuringian government.
