First round of French parliamentary elections in overseas territories begins
According to the surveys, the right-wing populist party Rassemblement National (RN) is leading and has a clear advantage: It could even slightly improve its good result in the European election and reached up to 35-36.5 percent recently. The left-green electoral alliance New People's Front followed in the surveys with 27.5-29 percent of the votes. The government camp of President Emmanuel Macron is far behind with 20.6-21 percent.
According to some surveys, the RN even has a chance of an absolute majority in the National Assembly. However, there are still many variables. It is to be expected that record voter turnout will be reached due to the importance of the ballot box.
This could lead to several dozen candidates being elected in the first round. Before the second round on July 7, the question then arises as to how many candidates might withdraw to prevent an RN candidate from winning.
Macron has so far refrained from making a clear election recommendation if RN and the left-green New People's Front candidates face each other in the second round. Since Macron's decision to call for new elections also put his own camp in a difficult position, it is likely that some candidates will make their decision independently of the President's recommendation.
The 20-day election campaign was marked by heated exchanges, with both the right-wing populists and the New People's Front confronting each other with accusations that they might not be able to finance their election promises.
The RN also questioned the previous powers of the President in foreign and defense policy. The party also faced heavy criticism for planned professional bans for French citizens with dual nationality, which would violate the equality principle of the Constitution.
Macron surprisingly dissolved the National Assembly and called for new elections after the RN's surprise victory in the European election on June 9. He expressed confidence that voters would vote differently if it was not about Europe but about the fate of their own country. However, the polls increasingly contradicted this thesis.
If the RN achieves an absolute majority, Macron might be forced to enter into a political shotgun marriage with the right-wing populists. This, in turn, could pave the way for Marine Le Pen to become President in 2027.
The parliamentary election on Sunday is expected to be strategically important, as the surveys suggest that the RN might gain an absolute majority. The European elections held earlier this year saw the RN performing exceptionally well in France's overseas territories, including the Caribbean.
The turnout for the election is anticipated to be high due to the significant implications of the vote. This could potentially see numerous candidates progress to the first round.
The tensions between the RN and other political parties, such as the left-green New People's Front, have led to significant debates during the campaign. These exchanges have centered around concerns over financial viability of their election promises and constitutional principles.
France's Parliamentary elections are set to take place on Sunday, following Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections after the RN's strong showing in the European elections.
Rassemblement National has been under scrutiny for its proposed professional bans for French citizens with dual nationality, which some argue contravenes the equality principle of the Constitution.
If the RN manages to secure an absolute majority in the Parliamentary elections, the implications for Emmanuel Macron and the future political landscape of France could be substantial.
