Census 2022 - Fewer inhabitants, less money - census burdens city coffers
Many communes in the Southwest are concerned about potential losses in their households following the publication of initial census data. The City Council speaks of partly unexplained population losses during the census two years ago compared to the previous population count. These losses amount to up to almost 15 percent and lead to painful budget cuts in some municipalities, explained association expert Norbert Brugger.
Population numbers are important for the municipal financial equalization. It brought the municipalities allocations of 14.3 billion Euro in 2023. The mechanism balances the financial power of municipalities in a country. The census therefore reflects in the planning of cities for kindergartens, schools, and elderly care. "If the census now corrects the population of a municipality unusually below average, then the financial allocation could also decrease accordingly," said Town Council President Steffen Jäger of the "Southwest Press".
The Town Council expects around 640 cities and municipalities nationwide to have to accept at least a one percent decrease in population when the final numbers are presented. Every fifth commune in Baden-Württemberg would even lose at least three percent of its population. "Particularly affected municipalities are signaling to us that such a significant correction is neither plausible nor understandable for many cases," said Jäger. He demanded maximum transparency in the calculations of the Statistical Office.
Corona as an explanation for the decline
The City Council is currently discussing aid for affected municipalities. Concrete details on how legal and statistical support will look like will only be clear at the end of September, when all municipalities have received their determination notices, said Brugger. The City Council explains the population decline in cities with universities and universities with the fact that many students lived with their parents during the pandemic, to which the census 2022 took place. Another point could be the large number of foreign citizens in Baden-Württemberg with the second highest foreigner percentage in the federal states, who registered but did not deregister when leaving the country.
Jagsthausen near Heilbronn has the largest decline of 14.9 percent, or 1731 inhabitants, compared to the self-reported population. This population is derived from the census 2011, which is regularly updated with newly added residents, departures, and deaths. The commune with the prominent Goetzenburg is already threatening legal action.
Although no statement will be made before the final determination, Mayor Roland Halter (partyless) plans to speak with the Statistical State Office. "If the numbers, against expectations, turn out to be correct, we will of course retain the legal remedy for ourselves," Halter announced. According to the "Stuttgarter Zeitung," it's about almost half a million Euro. In Heiligenberg in the Bodenseekreis with a census population of 2858, the difference is minus 10.5 percent. The state capital Stuttgart also showed a loss of 21,700 inhabitants or 3.4 percent.
Some communities have suddenly more inhabitants. According to the Statistical State Office, there are also winners: For example, Moosburg, a small community in the Landkreis Biberach, whose population size, according to the latest census, increased by 14 to 226. Pforzheim is also among the winners with a plus of 4.8 percent or 6,000 inhabitants. Konstanz is also pleased with a slightly higher official population size of a total of 86,695.
Many municipalities are concerned that they will receive fewer funds from the communal financial equalization starting in 2025. "These state funds go into a big pot and the municipalities want as much of it as possible," explained Brugger. However, the specific amounts do not only depend on population statistics. Cities receive higher state allocations, which provide infrastructure for neighboring municipalities. The new numbers will start to flow into the calculations for the financial equalization starting in 2025, and they will then be the sole basis.
Mannheim's Mayor Christian Specht (CDU) speaks of a disappointing result with regard to a minus of 0.2 percent or 700 fewer inhabitants. The sampling method is reaching its limits, especially in "socially challenging areas." Specht: "Especially in areas with high fluctuation and among population groups that frequently change their housing, such as students and labor migrants, there are significant assessment deficits."
Municipalities can legally challenge the census
Therefore, Brugger expects objections from municipalities to the Statistical State Office, which sends out the decisions to the communities. However, there will not be as many as in the case of the 2011 census, against whose results 373 objections and 144 lawsuits were filed. The Federal Constitutional Court had declared the survey method constitutionally valid in 2018.
Brugger expects less resistance this time. Because the organization of the counting for 2022 has been significantly improved compared to the census 2011, from more survey stations to a larger sample size to more state funds for covering expenses for the practical implementation.
In Baden-Württemberg, there were 11.1 million people living according to the census in 2022, which is about 132,000 (1.2 percent) fewer than previously assumed. The Southwest is therefore in a good comparison to other federal states. Bayern allegedly lost about 2.2 percent of its inhabitants, Hessen about 2.5 percent, and Hamburg about 3.5 percent.
- The concerns about population losses in Southwest municipalities extend beyond Stuttgart, affecting various municipalities within the region.
- The Association of Cities in Baden-Württemberg is scrutinizing the census data, as the coronavirus pandemic could potentially contribute to the population decline in certain urban areas with universities.
- The potential decrease in population could impact the finances of municipalities, leading to reduced funding from the communal financial equalization.
- Some universities in Baden-Württemberg, such as those in Heilbronn and Stuttgart, may have seen a decrease in student population due to the pandemic, which could affect the census numbers.
- The Municipalities' Association expects that many municipalities in Southwest Germany will need legal and statistical support to navigate the population decline and its financial implications.
- Southwest Press is closely following the developments in this area, reporting on the potential impact of the census data on the finances of various municipalities in Baden-Württemberg.
