Population - Fewer inhabitants in MV according to new survey
After the weak May tax assessment, the corrected population count of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the latest census brings the next bad news for the state's finances. The population decrease of approximately 56,000 people, as determined by the census in 2022, will have financial implications, stated a spokesperson of the Finance Ministry to the German Press Agency in Schwerin on Wednesday. "We will have less revenue."
The Finance Ministry had announced earlier this month that MV would have to reckon with 96 million Euro less in tax revenue for this year and 150 million Euro less in 2025 based on the May tax assessment.
Regarding the census impact, the spokesperson noted that the federal-state financial equalization takes population into account. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is a recipient state. The extent of the consequences is still unclear. This is currently being calculated in the Finance Ministry. Since the census determined the population count as of May 15, 2022, the allocations from the federal-state financial equalization for 2022 and 2023 are affected.
The communes in MV, where population numbers were significantly reduced, are concerned about budget holes. State funds are often allocated based on population size. The state capital Schwerin is currently considering, according to Oberburgermeister Rico Badenschier (SPD), filing an objection with the Statistical Office of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern against the census decision.
"As with the previous census in 2011, the differences from the census report are not explainable with our own statistical data," Badenschier complained. "Why a statistical method that multiplies a 10% sample should be more accurate than a resident registration office that counts all people who register their residence here, I still don't understand."
The entire MV has fewer inhabitants than anticipated
According to the data collection of the state as of May 15, 2022, there were 96,447 people living in Schwerin. That's 1,328 fewer than previously assumed. For Rostock, the office reported 6,150 fewer inhabitants than previously estimated. In total, there were 1,571,239 people in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern according to the census results on the reference date. That's 56,217 fewer than previously recorded in the population growth statistics.
The losses among young adults are particularly pronounced, as the NDR reported based on an analysis of census data. The analysis by the NDR refers to the change compared to the numbers from the previous census in 2011.
Statistician: Methodology scientifically tested
The Statistical Office defended its numbers. "The methodology of the 2022 census is thoroughly scientifically tested," explained the responsible department head Henry Lewerentz. "The Statistical Offices of the Federal Government and the States have determined real population counts with the 2022 census." This was achieved through a sample survey of households, which was then extrapolated, as well as a full survey in nursing homes and group homes.
Possible reason: Departure without registration
According to the German City Day, a reason for population decline, based on census results, could be that foreign residents have not deregistered when they moved away from Germany. Nationwide, there have been significant discrepancies in the number of foreign residents in Germany according to the census results.
- The decreased population of approximately 56,000 people, as determined by the 2022 census, will affect the financial equalization between Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and other German states, as the German Press Agency reported from Schwerin.
- Municipalities in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, such as Schwerin, are concerned about potential budget shortages due to the population decrease, as state funds are often allocated based on population size.
- The BMF is currently calculating the exact financial implications of the population decrease on Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's finances, taking into account that the allocations from the federal-state financial equalization for 2022 and 2023 are affected by the census results.
- The Spokesperson of the Finance Ministry stated that the population count following the latest census brings bad news for the state's finances, explaining that "we will have less revenue."
