- Extremists of all kinds are also making their presence felt in Bavaria
Extremists attempted to politically stabilize Germany and Bavaria in 2024, according to findings by the Bavarian Office for the Protection of the Constitution. "Extremists of all persuasions have spared no effort in the first six months of this year to shake our state and our democracy," said Bavaria's Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU) in Munich while presenting the 2024 half-year report. The threat situation is flanked by disinformation campaigns, espionage, and sabotage actions.
Right-wing Extremism
Members of the AfD are increasingly seeking contact with extremists. "The networking of the AfD with the extremist scene has increased both qualitatively and quantitatively," said Herrmann. The Bavarian Office for the Protection of the Constitution has been observing the AfD for over two years to clarify whether it is dominated by a hostile-to-the-constitution basic tendency. The observation order does not cover all functionaries and members. The AfD sees the observation as an attempt by the government to defame critical opposition.
The party "The Third Way" is also in the focus of the constitutional protectors, according to Herrmann. Here, there has been a clear increase in youth work, including joint leisure and sports activities such as combat sports training. "The goal is to bind young men to the party and gradually indoctrinate them ideologically."
Islamism
The security situation in Germany and Europe continues to be threatened by Islamist terrorism – above all by the strengthening of the Afghan IS offshoot "Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP)". "Propaganda organs of the ISKP are increasingly calling for attacks, including in Europe. Large events such as concerts or sports events are in the focus, as high numbers of victims are threatened. Several threat messages, for example regarding the Allianz Arena, show: Bavaria is also in the target spectrum."
But not only violence-oriented jihadists pose a threat. "Even legalistic Islamists like Muslim Interaktiv, whose followers have publicly demonstrated in Hamburg for the introduction of a caliphate, threaten our democracy. With their glossy videos and deliberately casual manner, these Islamist influencers reach tens of thousands," said Herrmann. Through manipulation, infiltration, and indoctrination, a theocratic state strictly oriented towards Islamic law is being sought.
Foreign-related Extremism
Since the Hamas attack on Israeli settlements on October 7, 2023, the mood at many pro-Palestinian demonstrations has been noticeably more aggressive, according to Herrmann. However, this is still a bigger problem in other federal states than in Bavaria.
"Despite all ideological differences, hatred of Israel and Jewish fellow citizens is the common denominator for both pro-Palestinian extremists and Turkish right- and left-wing extremists – the latter in alliance with German left-wing extremists," said Herrmann. The followers of the right-wing extremist "Ülkecü Movement" (Grey Wolves) are also increasingly appearing self-confidently in public. The banned "Kurdistan Workers' Party" (PKK) is also still active.
Left-wing Extremism
The propensity for violence among left-wing extremist circles remains high in Bavaria, according to Herrmann. Primarily, this is directed against actual or perceived right-wing extremists. Left-wing extremists have repeatedly demonstrated against party events, election campaigns, and information stands of the AfD. Herrmann expressed concern that physical attacks on AfD party members, their associates, and sympathizers are increasingly being legitimized within the scene.
Reichsbürger and Self-Administrators
Since late 2022, there has been an increase in "real-world activities" in Bavaria by the so-called "Kingdom of Germany" (KRD) around their self-proclaimed "King" Peter Fitzek. This group is one of the most enduring and significant at the national level among Reichsbürger and self-administrators, and they are particularly active in Middle Franconia, northern Upper Bavaria, and the Upper Palatinate in Bavaria.
Cybersecurity, Disinformation, and Espionage
"Recently, our Bavarian Office for the Protection of the Constitution has gained important new insights into the methods of the pro-Russian disinformation campaign 'Doppelgänger' through detailed technical analysis," said Herrmann. The campaign, uncovered in 2022, has been spreading Russian narratives since the start of the Ukraine war through deceptively realistic online portals or web appearances, aiming to undermine democratic values through misinformation. According to Herrmann, the detailed analyses show how the perpetrators systematically create, internationally distribute, and adapt disinformation to changing political situations.
However, the threat from espionage and sabotage activities is no longer limited to the cyber realm. This is evidenced by the arrest of two suspected pro-Russian spies and willing "helpers" of Russian actors in Bayreuth. "If it turns out that plans for assassinations of representatives of German arms companies were also being prepared, that would be a completely new level of escalation," said Herrmann.
Organized Crime
In April, German security authorities, with the help of investigations by the Bavarian Office for the Protection of the Constitution, dealt a nationwide blow to the Nigerian mafia. Coordinated raids across Germany led to the arrest of several high-ranking members of the so-called "Black Axe," one of several "confraternities" collectively known as the Nigerian mafia. This group is extremely violent and primarily involved in fraud, money laundering, prostitution, human trafficking, and drug trafficking.
In light of the increased networking of the AfD with extremist groups, the party "The Third Way" has also come into focus, with a notable increase in their youth activities aiming to indoctrinate young men. (Focus on the AfD and The Third Way)
Regarding the threat of Islamist terrorism, large events like concerts or sports events are specifically targeted, with propaganda organs of the ISKP calling for attacks in Europe. (Focus on potential threats to large events)
