Expert: Glaciers can form anew

It is a remarkable statement and it's not from anyone in particular, but from Austrian scientist of the year 2023, Andrea Fischer: The glaciers can come back, says the researcher from the Austrian Academy of Sciences in an interview we conducted with her at the 1st Alpine Climate Summit on the Zugspitze. But we have to fulfill some conditions for that.

ntv.de: You've even climbed up to the Zugspitze summit despite the bad weather. That shows me that you really love mountains.

Fischer: Yes, I've come to the mountains and the glaciers. I'm still someone who prefers being outside rather than inside and up rather than down.

You've been observing the development on the glaciers for many years. We all know they're melting. What does that mean for you?

As a researcher, I'm excited about discovering new things in science. So the excitement outweighs the concern. What's next? How do we improve our models? How do we design our measurements so we can follow the processes? So the chance to discover something completely new and also help future generations, that's what drives me as a researcher. As a researcher, I'm very aware that the glaciers are melting rapidly, but we do have the chance to steer things in our direction and reverse the trend. There was a deglaciation in the Alps before, although for different reasons. The re-glaciation happened around 6,000 years ago. Given all the challenges of anthropogenic climate change, I do see the chance that we can turn things around.

Do you really believe that?

There are two different approaches to this topic. As a mountaineer, I'll always fail if I think it's going badly and can't make it. If that's the case, then we need to approach it positively and tell ourselves that it's possible. This belief can move mountains. And that's why I focus on mastering the challenges. I'm convinced it's possible. We have better maps now because we know how to deal with the climate change we cause ourselves. We know where it comes from and what we need to do to improve the situation. For centuries, people have experienced natural climate change, but they didn't know where it came from. We have a political system, a global consensus, all countries agree that we have to address this issue. We just need to get started.

You mentioned leverage points in your presentation. What are they specifically?

We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We know that it requires a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. We need a more selective consumption, more sustainability, a more targeted and efficient mobility in daily traffic, private as well as in goods and cargo transport. And better energy supply. With these factors, we're already far enough that the Zugspitze glacier could exist at the end of this century.

Will that be clear from your projections?

The next 30 years are determined by our previous emissions. After that, what we do today and now will take effect. This means that the Alpine glaciers, especially in the Eastern Alps, will significantly shrink in the next 30 years. Then, if we take the right measures now, we may be able to return to today's or even earlier temperature levels.

They also try to stop the glacier retreat through technical measures such as glacier paving, covering with snow, and skiing. The context must be considered. These measures serve to maintain supports, infrastructure, and lifts in ski resorts so that they do not have to be renewed every few years. With the large-scale collapse of glaciers in the Eastern Alps, it may be beneficial to abandon these measures and transfer the ski resorts into ice-free conditions. These ski resorts are at relatively high altitudes and have an advantage in terms of snow supply. It is also more energy-efficient to ski at these altitudes because it is much colder there than in the valleys. The "moving up" of ski resorts will occur and is necessary.

They said that on the Zugspitze, there will be no more glacier in seven years - in the Eastern Alps in 30 years. It is possible that we will experience ice-free Alps that will eventually re-glacier?

Yes, there have been ice age-interglacial cycles in the past, during which the Alps were completely covered by ice during the glacial maximum. Interglacial minima likely had little or no ice. It is not yet clear whether we have blocked this ice age-interglacial cycle with anthropogenic change. There are tipping points in the climate system that we do not yet fully understand. But if we manage to change the composition of the atmosphere in a favorable direction, it is quite possible that there will be a gradual cooling, allowing at least smaller ice fields to form again. We do not yet know how long this process will take and will last. In the Eastern Alps, we are talking about about 30 years from snowflake to ice block. The snow will therefore turn into ice at the place where it falls and can then also flow downstream.

What consequences would this have for water supply, agriculture, and tourism if the Alps were actually ice-free?

We will have more landslides, more mass movements, and more landslides in the vicinity of the glaciers. This will likely remain limited to the near vicinity of the glaciers. This means that mountain climbers must be prepared for this hazard. The settlement area will not be endangered. We are also fortunate that we have enough precipitation in the Alps and can extract enough water from it. The advantage is that plants grow very quickly towards the top. Three years after becoming ice-free, we will already have over 20 different species, including flowering plants. Trees also grow relatively quickly. This stabilizes the soil and reduces the risk of landslides. There will be a shift, but these are things we can prepare for. We have good structures, management and risk zone plans. For each larger flowing water body, there are calculations on how high protective buildings must be, to ensure the safety of the settlement area and roads.

Interview with Andrea Fischer by Oliver Scheel.

Fischer highlighted the potential for climate protection efforts to reverse the trend of glacier melting, mentioning the historical re-glaciation in the Alps around 6,000 years ago as a possibility.
Addressing anthropogenic climate change is crucial for reducing CO2 emissions, as Fischer emphasized, which includes promoting more selective consumption, sustainability, and efficient energy use to protect the Zugspitze glacier and potentially stabilize glaciers in the Alps.
The impacts of a completely ice-free Alps on water supply, agriculture, and tourism are uncertain, but Andrea Fischer noted that the Alps have sufficient precipitation and plants can quickly grow at higher altitudes, providing potential adaptation opportunities.