Examining the weaponry in Iran's missile inventory and outlining Israel's tactics to confront them.
The recent aerial strike, more intense than a similar incident in April, has escalated the situation significantly, making it an incredibly volatile period in the Middle East. This serious escalation is happening amidst an already high-tension atmosphere as a significant geopolitical conflict in the region unfolds.
Let's delve into the missile capabilities of Iran and the defensive systems employed by countries in the region, including Israel.
Iran's missiles
Tehran boasts a vast arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles with diverse ranges, according to a 2021 report from the Missile Threat Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The exact number of each type of missile remains unknown. However, US Air Force Gen. Kenneth McKenzie informed Congress in 2023 that Iran possessed over 3,000 ballistic missiles, as reported by the Iran Watch website at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control this year.
Ballistic missiles follow a trajectory that takes them outside or near the Earth's atmosphere, before the warhead payload separates from the rocket and plummets back down towards its target. Weapons experts analyzed verified social media videos from the scene and reported that Iran utilized variants of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile in the recent attack on Israel.
The Shahab-3 is the base for all of Iran's medium-range ballistic missiles, using liquid propellant, as stated by Patrick Senft, a research coordinator at Armament Research Services (ARES). The Shahab-3 entered service in 2003, carrying a warhead between 760 and 1,200 kilograms (1,675 to 2,645 pounds) and can be fired from both mobile launchers and silos.
Iran Watch says the latest variant of the Shahab-3, the Ghadr and Emad missiles, have accuracies of less than 300 meters (approximately 1,000 feet) of their intended targets. Iranian media reported that Tehran used a new missile, the Fattah-1, in the attacks. Iran describes the Fattah-1 as a hypersonic missile – meaning it travels at Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound (about 3,800 miles per hour, 6,100 kilometers per hour).
However, almost all ballistic missiles reach hypersonic speed during their flights, especially as they dive towards their targets. Analysts have pointed out that the term "hypersonic" is commonly used to refer to advanced weapons, like hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles, that can maneuver at hypersonic speed inside Earth's atmosphere. These weapons are extremely challenging to shoot down due to their advanced capabilities.
Fattah-1, however, is neither of those, according to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who wrote about the subject last year. Hinz explains that the Fattah-1 seems to have a warhead on a maneuverable reentry vehicle, enabling it to make adjustments to avoid missile defenses during a short portion of its dive to its target.
Although this ability would be an improvement on Iran's earlier missiles, analysts remain skeptical that Iran would have used the new missile for the first time on Tuesday night. "It's one of their newest ballistic missiles, and they have a lot to lose from using it," said Trevor Ball, a former senior explosive ordnance technician for the US Army. "Israel would gain valuable information about its capabilities just by using it. There's also the chance it could fail to function, giving Israel even more information about its capabilities. They get free propaganda and risk nothing by saying it was used."
Israel's missile defenses
Israel possesses a range of systems to ward off attacks from various types of missiles, such as ballistic missiles with trajectories that take them outside the atmosphere and low-flying cruise missiles and rockets.
Much attention has been paid to its highly efficient Iron Dome system, which is used to intercept incoming rockets and artillery weapons. However, the Iron Dome serves only as the base layer of Israel's missile defense and would not be employed to combat the ballistic missiles launched on Tuesday night, according to the country's Missile Defense Organization (IMDO).
The David's Sling system, which safeguards against short- and medium-range threats, is the next level of missile defense, according to the IMDO. David's Sling is a joint project between Israel's RAFAEL Advanced Defense System and US defense giant Raytheon, employing Stunner and SkyCeptor kinetic hit-to-kill interceptors to eliminate targets up to 186 miles away, according to the Missile Threat Project at the CSIS.
Positive Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, jointly developed with the United States, are the highest levels of Israel's missile defense mechanisms.
The Arrow 2 uses fragmentation warheads to destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their terminal phase – as they dive towards their targets – in the upper atmosphere, according to the CSIS. The Arrow 2 has a range of 56 miles and a maximum altitude of 32 miles, according to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, which classified the Arrow 2 as an upgrade to the US Patriot missile defenses Israel once used in this role.
Meanwhile, the Arrow 3 uses hit-to-kill technology to intercept incoming ballistic missiles in space, before they re-enter the atmosphere on their way to targets. During Tuesday night's attack, the US military stated that it launched at least 12 anti-missile munitions against the incoming Iranian missiles. The US response came from the Navy guided-missile destroyers USS Cole and USS Bulkeley, which were operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said. The Pentagon did not specify the interceptors used, but the US destroyers are equipped with the Aegis ballistic missile defense system, with interceptor missiles that can strike and destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their mid-course or terminal phases.
Jordan's air defense system engaged Iranian missiles during a nighttime incident on Tuesday, as reported by a Jordanian authority, without providing any detailed info.
During an Iranian assault on Israel in April, numerous Iranian projectiles were successfully countered by Israeli and US military aircraft. However, Iran mainly utilized slower-moving drones in this assault, making them easier targets for the fighter jets compared to the speedy vertical descent of ballistic warheads aimed at Israeli targets.
This report includes contributions from CNN's Gianluca Mezzofiore and Haley Britzky.
The escalating tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about the regional missile capabilities, with Iran possessing a large number of ballistic missiles, as mentioned in a 2021 report. These missiles, such as the Shahab-3, have been used in attacks on countries like Israel.
In response, countries in the Middle East, including Israel, have developed sophisticated missile defense systems. For instance, Israel has the Arrow 3 system, which uses hit-to-kill technology to intercept incoming ballistic missiles in space, before they reach their targets.
