EU's population would decrease by a significant amount (about 20%) if there were no immigration, by 2070.
The forecasted population growth in the EU, aligning with Eurostat's expectations, projected a total of 451.4 million people by the beginning of 2023. Comprised of 27 member states, this figure would undergo various changes due to different demographic trends.
In the standard scenario, a decline in population would occur across many regions, with Eastern and Southern Europe experiencing significant reductions. Conversely, Sweden, Ireland, Luxembourg, Iceland, and Malta expected to see substantial population increases. Germany's population was predicted to diminish by 0.4% by 2070.
Boosting net migration levels by one-third from the standard scenario would result in a rise in populations alike. Nonetheless, this rise would have marginal effects on the proportion of people aged 65 and above. They would still comprise 29.5% of the EU's total population by 2070.
With unwavering net migration rates, the proportion of individuals older than 65 in the EU would increase slightly to 30.5%. In the baseline scenario, Germany would hold a share slightly below 29%. Meanwhile, Lithuania would witness a notable Swell, reaching 36%, with Italy and Portugal at 34%.
Among the member states, Sweden, Denmark, and France will have the highest concentration of individuals below 20 years old, making up 20% of their respective populations. Germany's population below 20 would stay around 19%.
By 2070, the proportion of individuals of working age to retirees in the EU is anticipated to deteriorate drastically based on the standard scenario. When 100 individuals of working age were present for every 36 individuals 65 and older in the early 2020s, there will be just 59 working-age individuals for every 100 retirees in 2070. The highest value would be observed in Lithuania at 73, the lowest in Sweden at 50, while Germany would have 54.
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- According to Eurostat's projections for 2070, Lithuania's elderly population could increase significantly, reaching 36%, while Germany's share would decline slightly to below 29%.
- The Federal Statistical Office of Germany reported that without immigration, the EU's population would decrease by approximately 20% by 2070.
- In contrast to Italy and Portugal, Iceland, Sweden, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Malta are expected to witness substantial population growth, as predicted by Eurostat.
- Without immigration, the EU's total population would reach 451.4 million by 2023, as forecasted by Eurostat, and certain member states like Germany would experience population decline.
- Germany's population, as stated by Eurostat, is expected to decrease by 0.4% by 2070, whereas Sweden, Denmark, and France will have high concentrations of individuals below 20 years old, making up 20% of their respective populations.
- If net migration levels were boosted by one-third from the standard scenario, Sweden, Ireland, Luxembourg, Iceland, and Malta would still witness population increases, but with marginal impacts on the proportion of people aged 65 and above.
- By 2070, according to Eurostat's predictions, the EU's demographic structure would show a deteriorating ratio of working-age individuals to retirees, with Germany having a ratio of 54.
- Comparatively, the proportion of working-age individuals to retirees is projected to be the highest in Lithuania at 73 and the lowest in Sweden at 50, as observed in Eurostat's expectations for 2070.
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