East on the brink once more following Hezbollah leader's threat of retaliation and Israel's airstrikes. Here's what has transpired.
Israel's bold, synchronized assaults, aimed at striking Hezbollah members with explosives secreted within pagers and handheld radios, have once again pushed the Middle East to the edge of a larger conflict, nearly a year after Hamas' Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel caused the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
The spotlight now shifts to Hezbollah and Israel's next actions, with the United Nations Security Council scheduled to hold an emergency meeting this coming Friday to discuss the situation.
The uncertainty lingers over whether Israel's assaults are a prelude to a ground invasion across its northern border into Lebanon and to what extent Iran-backed Hezbollah, one of the strongest paramilitary forces in the region, is capable of responding, despite their leader's vow of retribution.
Let's delve into the details.
What's the outcome?
Fear and anxiety have gripped Lebanon's residents as the attacks caused chaos and tragedy, disrupting daily life and claiming numerous lives. A surgeon informed CNN that many of the critically injured and maimed victims have a long road to recovery following the explosion of wireless devices in their pockets or on their faces.
At least 37 people were killed in the attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday, including children, and nearly 3,000 were injured. Hezbollah acknowledged the loss of at least 38 of its members since Tuesday afternoon but did not provide further details.
In a Thursday speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah condemned the twin attacks, labeling them as "massacres" that "transcended all the boundaries" as they targeted public areas and harmed civilians.
Though Hezbollah suffered significant losses, Nasrallah vowed that "retribution will be served," adding that the attacks would not break the group's spirit. The Hezbollah chief also warned that hostilities in Gaza would not halt until peace prevailed in the region.
What's Israel's strategy?
As Nasrallah spoke on Thursday, Israeli fighter jets cruised over Beirut, firing flares and echoing sonic booms, inciting concern of an escalation in the Lebanese capital. Hours later, Israel conducted a barrage of strikes in Lebanon, claiming to have hit around 100 Hezbollah rocket launchers and "terror targets."
While Hezbollah reportedly launched at least 17 attacks on military sites in northern Israel, Israel has made it clear it is prepared for war with Hezbollah. The Israeli defense minister's comment on Wednesday that a "new era of war" was beginning was followed by the military confirming its top commander had "approved plans for the northern arena" along the Lebanon border.
Israel's refocus on the north is a recent objective to facilitate the return of evacuated residents to areas near the northern boundary that had been targeted by Hezbollah attacks.
How could Hezbollah react?
Nasrallah hinted at retaliation for the twin attacks, but it's unclear what capacity Hezbollah might have to counterattack if its members are injured and key communication methods are no longer functional.
Despite appearing weakened, Hezbollah remains believed to be the most heavily armed non-state group in the world, possessing an increasingly advanced arsenal capable of causing substantial harm to Israel.
There are, however, indications that the traditionally secretive group may be operating more covertly. The typical public gathering to watch Nasrallah's speech was absent on Thursday, and his address—his first since the two waves of attacks—was possibly pre-recorded.
Nonetheless, the Hezbollah leader, who claimed their leadership remained untouched as they used older devices, has a powerful ally in Iran.
Based in Lebanon, Hezbollah is part of a Tehran-led alliance spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza, and Iraq that has been engaged in a low-grade conflict with Israel and its allies for the past 11 months.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami reportedly told Nasrallah that Israel would soon face a "decisive and crushing response" from the "axis of resistance."
Hezbollah also has a history of targeting Israeli diplomats overseas, including a 1992 bomb attack on the Israeli embassy in Argentina that killed 29 people. There were attacks on Israeli diplomats in India, Georgia, and Thailand in 2012 that Israel blamed on Iran and Hezbollah, although the group denied involvement at the time.
Haven't we been through this before?
Anxiety that Israel's devastating war in Gaza could escalate into a broader regional conflict has risen and fallen in levels of concern since Hamas launched its deadly October 7 assault.
Key players have occasionally approached the brink, but tensions have eased given the serious consequences of a full-scale war in the Middle East.
However, almost every week brings another violent incident, placing the region back on high alert once again, with the fear of a full-scale war involving the United States, Israel's main ally.
In August, Iran vowed retaliation against Israel for the death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which came a day after a Hezbollah commander was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.
Ever since, international efforts have been geared towards de-escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. This objective will be renewed during the UN Security Council's emergency meeting on Friday.
While Hezbollah's leader has previously expressed his desire to avoid a full-blown regional war, experts have suggested that he may now be under more pressure to act following the spate of explosions, with Israel planning to shift its military objectives to its northern frontier.
CNN's Tamara Quinn, Mike Crawford, Mohammed Thompson, Eyad Knight, Jessie Young, and Lauren Jackson assessed the situation.
The international community, including the United Nations Security Council, is closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East, with a scheduled emergency meeting this coming Friday to discuss the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite the ongoing conflict and the significant losses suffered by Hezbollah, they remain one of the most heavily armed non-state groups in the world and have a powerful ally in Iran, which could potentially impact the world's geopolitical landscape.
