Earth Experiences Heated April, Experts Predict Record-Breaking Temperatures in 2024
The last several months have witnessed an unparalleled surge in global temperatures, marking 11 consecutive record-breaking months. Scientists predict that 2024 might just continue this trend, becoming the second year in a row with the highest temperatures on record.
In comparison to the pre-industrial era, last month's temperature was a staggering 1.58°C (2.85°F) higher than the average for April, and 0.67°C (1.21°F) above the average between 1991 and 2020, as per Copernicus data.
In Asia, the consequences have been devastating. Schools were closed for millions of children in Bangladesh as they battled extreme heat, rice fields in Vietnam withered, and citizens in India sizzled under temperatures exceeding 110°F (43°C) while casting their votes in recent elections.
Global oceanic heat levels also reached new highs in April, making it the 13th consecutive month of record-breaking ocean temperatures. The average ocean surface temperature attained a staggering 21.04°C (69.87°F), the highest on record for April, and just shy of the overall record from March, according to Copernicus.
Catastrophic impacts on marine ecosystems include a mass coral bleaching event, which scientists at the time noted as potentially the worst on record.
The principal driver of such record-breaking heat is the long-standing trend of global warming, primarily fueled by humans' combustion of fossil fuels. The impact of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that typically boosts temperatures, can't be ignored.
Though El Niño is weakening, Hausfather, a climate research lead at Stripe and research scientist at Berkeley Earth, notes that it doesn't necessarily mean the end of record-breaking temperatures. The post-El Niño year usually witnesses higher temperatures. Despite the ongoing setting of heat records, the gaps in which they're being bridged are narrower compared to 2023.
Hausfather estimates a 66% chance that 2024 will hold the crown for the hottest year on record, while a 99% probability places it as the second hottest. The anticipated outcome? Nearly 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels.
The ambition is for global temperatures to remain less than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels. This aim, however, refers to long-term forecasts spanning decades, not temporary spikes like the one we're experiencing. These sudden surges are concerning reminders of escalating climate change.
The following months will give scientists crucial insights into whether these lately excessive temperatures represent a fleeting trend or a precursor to a disturbing new trend that could speed up warming faster than previously anticipated.
If global temperatures relax from their record-breaking status in the next two months, it would provide a glimmer of hope that the climate system is showing more predictability.
However, Buontempo, Copernicus' director, reminds us that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to push global temperatures to new records, irrespective of climate cycles.
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The unprecedented global temperature increases continue to shape the world's climate, with 2024 predicted to potentially break more records. This upward trend in temperatures is causing significant consequences around the globe, such as food shortages in Vietnam due to wilting rice fields.
As the international community works to limit global warming, record-breaking temperatures persist, making it increasingly challenging to meet the goal of keeping temperatures less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Source: edition.cnn.com
