Directional decision in France: right-wing populists favored in parliamentary elections
In the French overseas territories, voting had already begun on Saturday afternoon (MESZ) due to time difference. Elsewhere in France, polling stations opened on Sunday at 8:00 am.
"These are not simple elections, the results are very uncertain, the consequences could be significant for society," said the 38-year-old Julien Martin during his vote in Bordeaux. He was very concerned and couldn't understand how it had come to this, said Amalia, who went straight to the polling station after a successful night.
French President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly called for a new election following the poor showing of his government in the European election in early June. His hope that the French would vote differently in a national election than in the EU-wide ballot seems to be refuted by the polls.
Instead, the ballot could pave the way for the first right-wing populist government in the country since World War II. It appears that the government's relative majority in the National Assembly is at risk. On Monday morning, Macron is expected to receive Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and other government members at the Elysée Palace in Paris to discuss the consequences of the parliamentary election.
In the polls, the right-wing RN party is leading steadily and with a significant margin: The party could even slightly improve its good result in the European election and recently reached 34 to 37 percent of the votes. The left-green New People's Front alliance followed in the polls with 27.5 to 29 percent of the votes. The government of President Emmanuel Macron is far behind with 20.6 to 21 percent.
According to some polls, the RN even has a chance of an absolute majority in the National Assembly. However, there are still many variables. To achieve an absolute majority, the party would need to come to 289 of the 577 seats. Previously, the RN had only 88 deputies.
If the RN were to achieve an absolute majority, Macron would be forced to enter into a political shotgun wedding with the right-wing populists and make Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old party leader, prime minister. This, in turn, could pave the way for Marine Le Pen to become president in 2027.
Given the significance of the ballot, record voter turnout is to be expected. It could exceed 67 percent and significantly higher than in the first round of the parliamentary election in 2022. At that time, 47.5 percent of voters cast their ballots.
According to the French interior ministry, over 2.6 million voting powers were issued for the vote - four times as many as in a comparable period two years ago.
In the French overseas territories, where the vote began on Saturday due to the time difference, a significantly higher voter turnout was already noticeable: In New Caledonia, turnout on Sunday afternoon (local time) was 32.4 percent compared to around 13 percent two years ago. In French Polynesia, it reached 18 percent by midday - compared to 15.8 percent at the same time two years ago.
"A lot is at stake," said a 21-year-old voter on the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe. In New Caledonia, nurse Cassandre Cazaux said, "This election is decisive for the country."
A high voter turnout on the French mainland could lead to several dozens of candidates being elected in the first round. Before the second round on July 7th, the question then arises as to how many candidates might withdraw in order to prevent a RN candidate from winning.
A victory for the Right-wing Populists in the Parliamentary elections would represent the greatest upheaval in younger French history. The party has softened some of its earlier positions - for instance, advocating for France's exit from the EU or the end of Franco-German arms projects. However, it has drawn up an Europe- and foreigner-hostile program for the campaign, which raises significant conflict points with Macron's previous course.
- The right-wing RN party is currently leading in the polls for the upcoming European elections, potentially paving the way for the first right-wing populist government in France since the Second World War.
- Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, was surprised by his government's poor performance in the European elections, prompting him to call for a new parliamentary election.
- Polling stations across France opened on Sunday at 8:00 am for the parliamentary election, with concerns about the uncertain results and potential societal consequences.
- Gabriel Attal, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, has emphasized the importance of the election, stating that "a lot is at stake" for France's future in the EU.
- If the RN party were to achieve an absolute majority, Macron would need to enter into a political alliance with them, potentially making their leader, Jordan Bardella, the Prime Minister.
- According to polls, the RN party could even surpass their performance in the European elections and secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
- The European elections were followed by a decrease in support for Emmanuel Macron's government, with the right-wing RN party significantly outperforming the left-green New People's Front alliance and the government's own showing.
- The consequences of the election will likely be discussed at the Élysée Palace with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and other government members on Monday morning, determining the directional decision for France's future in the EU.
