Destructive drone strike carried out by Hezbollah showcases Israel's vulnerabilities.
From the south of Lebanon, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) permeated Israeli air defenses unnoticed and struck the Golani Brigade's headquarters, located about 40 miles into Israel from the border. The attack occurred on Sunday around 7pm, during dinner time, and although the military has yet to disclose the exact impact site, photos from the scene suggest that the UAV hit the dining hall.
The timing and location of the attack suggest that Hezbollah had amassed enough intelligence and possesses the capacity to inflict the maximum number of casualties. The Golani Brigade is considered an elite Israeli infantry unit and has been deployed to southern Lebanon as part of Israel's ground operations in the region.
Four soldiers were killed, and over 60 others were injured, eight of them seriously, raising the number of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers killed since the commencement of the ground operation two weeks ago to at least 18.
This Sunday's assault marked the most lethal attack on IDF troops within Israel since the conflict began last October.
According to Daniel Sobelman, an international security expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, this attack demonstrates Hezbollah's ability to strike. Sobelman stated, "It is a clear indication that Hezbollah is regaining its strategic balance following the recent devastating blows to its leadership and command and control apparatuses."
Israel's air defense systems are renowned for intercepting and destroying most projectiles aimed at the country. However, they have primarily been engineered and developed to counteract rockets and missiles, not low-flying, speedy drones capable of altering directions swiftly.
Despite the IDF's silence on the type of aircraft used in the attack, experts familiar with the issue revealed to CNN that the most likely drone in question was a Mirsad drone, or an Ababil drone as it is known in Iran.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior research fellow at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, explained that such UAVs are challenging to detect because of their small size, light weight, and minimal radar signatures.
Iran and its allies are attempting to surpass Israel's defense systems, incorporating drones into their strategy after identifying them as a weakness for Israel.
"Every time we find a solution for something, they find another way to attack," Mizrahi said.
Residents of Israel are well-drilled in dodging aerial threats. Generally, they abandon shelters or dive into ditches whenever they hear the alarms indicating an imminent aerial threat.
However, the drone launched by Hezbollah on the weekend evaded Israel's alert systems undetected and attacked the soldiers in the dining hall without warning.
This was not the first time such an incident occurred. In June, Hezbollah released a nine-minute video filmed by a drone, showcasing both civil and military locations in and around Israel's biggest city, Haifa. Despite appearing to have gone unnoticed by the IDF, the UAV in question was undetected.
In response to the video, IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi referred to the Israeli military's ongoing efforts to develop solutions to counteract these and other capabilities.
In July, a drone launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen killed one person and wounded at least ten others in Tel Aviv. No warnings were issued during that attack. The IDF admitted to having intercepted one drone but failed to stop the other due to supposed human error.
The technique of launching two drones simultaneously or sequentially appears to have been adopted by Hezbollah last week.
The IDF claimed that two drones were launched from Lebanon on Friday, but only one was intercepted. The nursing home in the coastal city of Herzliya, central Israel, was damaged in the attack, but no casualties were reported.
It seems likely that the same approach was employed on Sunday. Just before the first reports of the attack against the Golani Brigade base, the IDF announced that it had intercepted an UAV launched from Lebanon in the northern naval area of Israel. This apparently implies that the drone that struck the base was a second aircraft fired either simultaneously or shortly after or before the first one. The IDF did not comment on the number of drones launched on Sunday.
Hezbollah declared that it had fired dozens of rockets toward the northern Israeli towns of Nahariya and Acre to engage Israel's air defense systems, while simultaneously launching drones.
A challenging fight
Despite Hezbollah's persistent ability to bombard Israel, the IDF has waged an intense aerial campaign within Lebanon and a limited ground operation against Hezbollah along the border.
More than 1,500 people have been killed in Lebanon since September 16, when Israel intensified its campaign against Hezbollah, as per a CNN tally of statements issued by the Lebanese health ministry.
When Israel launched its ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, it stressed that its actions across the border would be "limited" in both geographical scope and duration, aiming to dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure in the border areas.
Since Hezbollah initiated rocket barrages at Israel in October 2020 in support of Hamas in Gaza, over 60,000 people have been evacuated from northern Israel.
However, the circumstances on the ground suggest that Israel might be preparing for a potential larger-scale conflict. It has stationed units from four divisions in southern Lebanon and ordered the evacuation of a quarter of Lebanon's territory and its residents. Over 1.2 million people have been displaced, as per the United Nations.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) avoid revealing its troop numbers, but each division typically comprises between 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers.
In 2006, during Israel's last invasion of Lebanon, around 30,000 troops were moved across the border.
The conflict concluded in a draw after 34 days, resulting in approximately 1,100 Lebanese and around 170 Israeli casualties, including 120 soldiers.
CSIS posits that a future ground operation could necessitate a larger troop deployment than Israel utilized against Hezbollah in 2006. Even so, this might not be sufficient.
"Hezbollah's capacity to prolong a war of attrition, disrupt daily life in significant parts of northern Israel, and impose significant costs on Israel indicates that it is regaining its operational stability," remarked Sobelman, the international security expert, in an interview with CNN.
He emphasized that in guerrilla wars, it's often the resilience of the weaker actor to persevere, continue fighting, and inflict losses on the opposing side that holds the most significance.
Given the rising IDF casualties in its war against Hezbollah, it's apparent that the militant group is unwavering in its determination to carry on – despite the severe setbacks it has sustained.
CNN's Nadeen Ebrahim and Zeena Saifi contributed to this report.
The attack originating from the Middle East has raised concerns about Hezbollah's growing capacity to threaten the world. The strategic balance shifting in Hezbollah's favor is seen as a global concern, considering their ability to strike within Israel with drones unnoticed by air defenses.
