European Union - CSU projected to have 39% support in Bavaria.
The CSU stands out as the dominant player in the European election in Bavaria with 39% of the votes, based on the second calculation by Infratest Dimap for Bayerischer Rundfunk. Although they didn't manage to match their previous result of 40.7% from five years ago, they still managed to beat their 2023 state election result of 37%. Next in line are the Greens with 12.3% (compared to 19.1% in 2019) and the AfD with 11.2% (compared to 8.5% in 2019).
This projection aligns with the recent trends in the run-up to the election. The SPD arrives in fourth place with 8.9% (compared to 9.3% in 2019), followed by the Free Voters with 7.1% (5.3% in 2019). The FDP comes in fifth with 4.0% (3.4% in 2019), and the BSW with 3.8%. Volt saw an increase in their support to 2.7% (0.7% in 2019), while the OEDP remained almost stagnant at 2.4% (3.1% in 2019).
The voter turnout reached 64% according to Infratest Dimap, which is significantly higher than the 60.8% recorded in 2019. A total of 10.4 million people were qualified to vote in Bavaria, which included approximately 220,000 16- and 17-year-olds who were voting for the first time because of the lowered voting age. Besides the 9.57 million German citizens, there were roughly 822,000 individuals with another EU citizenship who could choose where they preferred to cast their vote - either in Bavaria or in their respective home member state.
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The CSU's strong performance in Bavaria's European election is not unusual for them, as they often perform well in elections within BR. This Euro election extrapolation suggests that they might also gain significant support in the upcoming 2023 Bavarian state election. The EU elections in Bavaria have shown a shift in voter preferences, with some parties like the SPD and FDP seeing a slight decrease in support, while others like Volt and OEDP have seen an increase. The AfD, despite their lower support compared to 2019, still managed to secure a significant percentage of votes. This election cycle in Bavaria mirrors the broader European elections trend, where established parties are losing ground to upstarts. In contrast, the CSU, along with other German parties, are part of the EU, contributing to the bloc's political landscape. Munich, as the capital city of Bavaria, will also be impacted by these election results, as the CSU holds significant influence in the region.
