- Competition from right-wing parties hinders AfD from securing election victories.
The challenge posed by the right-wing Free Saxons, as per political scientist Tom Thieme's analysis, hindered the AfD from clinching victory in Saxony's election. The AfD managed to secure 30.6% of the votes, while the Free Saxons garnered 2.2%. By combining both results, the total amounts to 32.8%, which is the same percentage the AfD garnered in Thuringia where no such right-wing competition existed, according to Thieme.
Although the AfD might feel triumphant as the sole party to boost its vote share, it fell short of its targets to emerge victorious and obtain a one-third majority mandate.
On election night, Thieme, a lecturer at the Saxon Police University, noted an intriguing phenomenon where all parties appeared content despite harboring reasons for discontent.
"The CDU emerged as the winning party but lost the top position in most direct mandates, recording its worst result in Saxony," Thieme explained. The SPD, despite recording its poorest result since 2019, might find satisfaction as certain polls predicted it would fail to surpass the five-percent threshold prior to the election. Thieme anticipates a coalition between CDU, BSW, and SPD. "The CDU might find it simpler due to some preliminary agreements - immigration limits, diplomatic interventions in the Ukraine war, and opposition to gender and identity politics."
Whether the BSW, due to its inexperienced members, will be able to form a government remains to be determined. This is especially true for the SPD, as Thieme observed. Although there are some common ground in social and education policies with the BSW, there are considerable political-cultural disparities, particularly in societal policies. "Previously, the SPD was somewhat between the Union and the Greens in the past 'Kenya' coalition government. However, it might now find itself more on the periphery of the coalition."
In the political landscape of Saxony, the Landtag election saw the CDU emerge as the winning party, despite losing the top position in most direct mandates. The SPD, participating in the Saxon parliament for another term, will have representatives in the Landtag.
