Climate - CO2 emissions from fossil fuels at an all-time high
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas are continuing to rise. They are expected to reach a peak of 36.8 billion tons per year in 2023, as experts write in the Global Carbon Budget report. This is 1.1 percent more than in 2022 and 1.4 percent more than in the pre-corona year 2019.
"The impacts of climate change are evident all around us, but action to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels remains painfully slow," said research leader Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter (UK), according to a statement. More than 120 experts were involved in the report published in the journal "Earth System Science Data".
Climate target under threat
According to the report, the proportion of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air will average 419.3 ppm (parts per million) in 2023, which is 51 percent higher than in 1750. "It seems inevitable that we will exceed the 1.5-degree target - and the last few years have drastically shown us how serious the consequences of climate change already are," said Julia Pongratz from Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, one of the lead authors of the report. Nevertheless, every tenth of a degree counts in the fight against the climate crisis.
The global average temperature should not rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the time before the industrial revolution - this is the primary goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. However, the global budget of CO2 that can still be emitted in order to achieve this goal with a probability of 50 percent will be exhausted in seven years at the emission level of 2023, as the experts write in the report. To keep global warming to 1.7 degrees, it will take another 15 years, and 28 years at two degrees, starting in 2024.
More emissions in China and India
Using a large number of measured values and carefully checked computer models, the researchers determined that India emitted 8.2 percent more CO2 from fossil fuels this year than in 2022. The world's most populous country now has higher emissions than the European Union.
China, which is responsible for 31 percent of all global fossil CO2 emissions, emitted four percent more fossil CO2 in 2023 than in the previous year. In contrast, the USA reduced these emissions by 3.0 percent and the EU by as much as 7.4 percent. In the rest of the world, there was a decrease of 0.4 percent, i.e. a positive trend.
The report does not provide a preliminary calculation for Germany for 2023. Last year, Germany reduced its fossil CO2 emissions by 1.9 percent. Compared to 1990, Germany has been able to reduce its CO2 emissions by 36.8 percent to 0.67 billion tons (equivalent to 1.8 percent of global emissions). Nevertheless, more needs to be done to reduce CO2 in this country too.
Reforestation is not keeping pace
Another focus of the report is land use change, in particular deforestation. According to the report, an estimated 4.1 billion tons of CO2 were released into the atmosphere as a result of land use change in 2023. This is slightly less than the average of 4.7 billion tons for the years 2013 to 2022. In this decade, 1.9 billion tons of CO2 were removed from the air annually through reforestation, but this was not enough to offset the emissions of 4.2 billion tons per year from permanent deforestation, mainly in Brazil, Indonesia and the Congo.
Technical solutions in their infancy
For the first time, the report also shows the reduction of atmospheric CO2 through technical measures. However, this currently only accounts for 0.00001 billion tons of CO2 - significantly less than one millionth of current CO2 emissions.
Nevertheless, technologies such as Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) are needed, emphasized Jan Minx from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) in Berlin. "If we want to clean up the atmosphere at some point, because we don't want to live with climate damage of 1.5 degrees, then we need these technologies."
The experts are encouraged by the fact that there are numerous countries that have significantly reduced their CO2 emissions and whose economies have nevertheless grown.
So-called carbon sinks continue to absorb around half of the CO2 released into the air by humans. On land, it is mainly vegetation and soil that remove CO2 from the atmosphere, while in the ocean it is certain chemical reactions. However, without climate change, the land sink and the ocean sink could absorb significantly more CO2. "These effects will become even more pronounced with increasing climate change," emphasized Judith Hauck from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven.
Read also:
- The rise in CO2 emissions from natural gas contributes to the all-time high global emissions, according to the Global Carbon Budget report.
- Great Britain, along with over 120 experts, has contributed to the report on the increasing levels of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere.
- Climate change has led to a significant increase in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, threatening the target set at the Paris Climate Conference in 2015.
- Although China is responsible for a significant portion of the world's CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, India has surpassed the EU in emissions this year.
- Despite China's increase in CO2 emissions, countries like the USA and the EU have managed to reduce their emissions significantly.
- Regarding Germany, the report did not provide an updated emission rate for 2023, but last year, Germany saw a 1.9% reduction in fossil CO2 emissions.
- Technical solutions like Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) are crucial, according to Jan Minx, to offset the CO2 emissions and protect the environment from climate damage.
- Reforestation has been unable to keep pace with the permanent deforestation in countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and the Congo.
- According to Judith Hauck from the Alfred Wegener Institute, the land sink and the ocean sink could absorb more CO2 if climate change was not present.
- The impact of coronavirus has slowed down the actions to reduce carbon emissions globally, but it has also highlighted the urgency of addressing the ongoing climate crisis.
Source: www.stern.de
