Climate report: researchers warn of tipping points

Science - Climate report: researchers warn of tipping points

According to experts, global warming to date threatens five major natural systems with potentially irreversible upheaval. This is according to the "Global Tipping PointsReport".

In climate research, tipping points are defined as when small changes trigger a domino effect, the consequences of which may no longer be reversible. The concept of tipping points and the associated uncertainties are the subject of intense debate in the scientific community.

The report was compiled by an international team of more than 200 researchers. It was coordinated by the British University of Exeter and the Bezos Earth Fund.

Researchers paint a bleak picture

"Five major tipping systems are already at risk of exceeding their respective tipping points with current global warming," said the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which was involved in the report. This concerns the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the subpolar gyre circulation in the North Atlantic, warm-water coral reefs and some permafrost areas. "If global warming rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius, three more systems - boreal forests, mangroves and seagrass meadows - could be at risk of tipping over in the 2030s," says PIK.

If several tipping points are crossed, there is also a risk of a catastrophic loss of the ability to grow crops for staple foods, the authors of the report warn. "Without urgent action to halt climate and ecological catastrophe, societies will be overwhelmed when nature goes off the rails," they said in a statement from the University of Exeter.

Positive tipping points could "save millions of lives"

As the response of governments around the world to date has not been sufficient, the researchers put forward six recommendations to avoid the negative tipping points and even introduce positive tipping points.

The six recommendations include stopping emissions from fossil fuels and land use well before the middle of the century. In addition, negative consequences for particularly hard-hit groups and countries should be mitigated. Coordinated efforts are also needed to trigger positive tipping points and raise awareness of tipping points.

Examples of positive tipping points include the expansion of renewable energies and the switch to electromobility. "A cascade of positive tipping points would save millions of lives, spare billions of people suffering, prevent trillions of dollars of damage and start the process of restoring the nature we all depend on," the university statement said.

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1. The Climate crisis, driven by global warming, is pushing five major natural systems towards tipping points, as outlined in the "Global Tipping Points Report" compiled by an international team of over 200 researchers, with the University of Exeter leading the coordination.
2. Experts warn that if global warming surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius, it could push three additional systems, such as boreal forests and seagrass meadows, towards their own tipping points by the 2030s, according to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
3. To avoid these negative tipping points and potentially introduce positive ones, researchers propose six actions, including the halt of emissions from fossil fuels and land use prior to mid-century, and the mitigation of negative impacts on vulnerable groups and nations.
4. Positive tipping points, such as the expansion of renewable energy sources and the shift to electric vehicles, could save millions of lives, prevent immense damage, and set the stage for nature's recovery, as highlighted by the researchers.

Source: www.stern.de