Claudia Sheinbaum assures governance for everyone; these are the obstacles awaiting her.
In October, when she officially begins her role, Sheinbaum will have to tackle the main obstacles facing Mexico, including security concerns and the future of its democracy. The upcoming administration will also need to address the impact of her controversial mentor and fellow Morena party member, the outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador. While his social welfare policies have helped alleviate poverty, he has not been successful in reducing the reach of organized crime in the country.
To start her governance, Sheinbaum plans to be an investor-friendly president and work for the benefit of all Mexicans. She emphasized the importance of preserving the principles of democracy and nurturing peaceful co-existence despite the partisan nature of the recent election. She committed to a government devoid of corruption and impunity, and one that prioritizes republican austerity, financial and fiscal discipline.
Interestingly, the Morena party is predicted to gain majority control in both chambers of the Congress, as per Carin Zissis, an expert in Mexico and editor-in-chief of the Americas Society/Council's online magazine. This scenario has raised concerns about the party's ability to push through constitutional reforms that could undermine the separation of powers and witness the dissolution of some independent regulatory agencies.
Sheinbaum's win was anticipated, but a more significant development was the apparent victory of the Morena party. The Mexican peso experienced a 3% drop against the US dollar on Monday, due to anxiety over a possible rapid passage of contentious constitutional reforms pushed by López Obrador.
These reforms cover a range of areas, including pensions and the energy sector, along with controversial judicial and institutional modifications that critics believe could weaken the separation of powers.
However, it's unclear if Sheinbaum will continue in López Obrador's footsteps. In the past, Mexican presidents have chosen a new direction, even if they were hand-picked by their predecessors. She has promised to continue López Obrador's legacy, but whether or not she sticks to this remains uncertain.
Violence has been a dominating theme in this year's election, as evidenced by the numerous candidates murdered before the vote and the attempts by gangs to influence the electoral outcome.
Sheinbaum will inherit a heartbreaking issue: the epidemic of missing people in the country. More than 100,000 Mexicans and migrants have vanished, with no answers given to their families, and more than 95% of all crimes remain unsolved, according to Mexico Evalua. Sheinbaum's record as Mexico City's mayor doesn't guarantee results at the federal level due to the complex situation involving diverse criminal groups beyond drug trafficking.
As the first hour of her reign draws near, concerns about the safety of the nation and women stand paramount in voters' minds. Gangs have taken control of various sectors like illegal logging, mining, and water supply, presenting a new set of challenges. The militarization of public security, a solution employed for two decades to deal with crime, has coexisted with historically high homicide rates.
A recent report by the Crisis Group revealed that official corruption and collaboration have undermined effective law enforcement. To combat these issues, Sheinbaum may have to adopt specialized measures for each state and change the existing approaches against criminal groups. It will be a massive task to change the status quo while preserving the essence of her party's principles.
Sheinbaum has been tight-lipped about her security measures, but mentioned in a tweet on X, "At the national level, we can make incredible strides in terms of security." The strategy included combining the National Guard, enhancing intelligence and research, and improved synergy between the police, prosecutor's offices, and the attorney general's office.
Sheinbaum has emphasized the importance of the relationship between Mexico and the United States, particularly regarding trade. "There will be a relationship of friendship, respect, mutual respect, and equality with the United States, as it has been up until now, and we will always defend Mexicans who are located in the other country," she stated on Sunday night, local time.
However, experts anticipate divergences in foreign policy between the United States and Mexico. Sheinbaum is part of the ideological and political left wing, and may adopt similar stances as López Obrador in relation to Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua. She is expected to not agree with the geopolitical positions preferred by the US over the Gaza and Ukraine controversies.
López Obrador has angered proponents of both sides of the Israel and Gaza confrontation. Mexico has avoided breaking diplomatic ties with Israel, in contrast to some of its Latin American counterparts, but has attempted to join South Africa's case against Israel at the international court.
Sheinbaum criticized the violence following Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel and had previously advocated for a Palestinian state.
In a 2009 letter to the editor of a Mexican newspaper, Sheinbaum expressed that many relatives from her grandparent's generation were killed in concentration camps. "Because of my Jewish ancestry, because of my love for Mexico, and because I consider myself a global citizen, I share with millions the desire for justice, equality, fraternity, and peace," she penned in La Jornada. "As a result, I can only be horrified by the pictures of state bombings," referring to an Israeli bombing campaign of Gaza that year.
"No reason justifies the murder of Palestinian civilians," she proclaimed.
Migration and the US partnership
Sheinbaum is taking office just a month before the Americans vote in November. Immigration is a key issue in the election campaign for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Both politicians have leaned heavily on Mexico to boost immigration enforcement and aid in curtailing migration to the US southern border.
While migration between the two countries' borders is a shared concern, migration is a secondary issue for Mexican voters, according to Zissis.
Under López Obrador, the Mexican government has accepted the deportation of tens of thousands of citizens from countries other than Mexico, in accordance with a 2023 Biden administration rule. López Obrador's administration also intensified efforts to hinder migrants' journey to the US by transporting significant numbers of people from northern Mexico to the south.
Nonetheless, Mexico's policies have significantly impacted the number of migrants crossing at the US southern border, with Brewer noting that it is "not a sustainable option for anyone - particularly for migrants who are often targets of violence in Mexico."
Will Sheinbaum maintain Mexico's aid to the US immigration policies? The transition of power is likely causing confusion among some Biden officials regarding potential fluctuations in their crucial border partner.
