Clash between AfD and CDU anticipated in wake of local polls.

Local authorities - Clash between AfD and CDU awaits following regional polls.

Concerns loomed large, yet the anticipated loud bang never came: The AfD, a far-right party represented by Björn Höcke, consolidated their standing in Thuringian local assemblies, falling short of clinching a victory in the initial rounds of landrat and mayor polls. Instead, they will clash with the CDU in the runoff elections slated for June 9th across several regions. Although both parties held nearly equal vote shares in district and city councils, an analyst observed that the anticipated breakthrough for the AfD had not surfaced. "At present, one can't link a triumph to the AfD. The most severe apprehensions haven't taken effect," noted Hans Vorländer, a political scientist from Dresden, to the German Press Agency in Erfurt.

Concerns regarding the AfD's influence extend beyond direct election gains. Specialists and the party itself predict an increased prominence within municipal assemblies. This enhanced position could create complications, possibly rendering it hard to bypass them. Is the Berlin Wall evaporating in the localities?

Personnel woes impede AfD

The party successfully advanced nine out of its 13 candidates for landrats and mayors to the second round of voting. Nevertheless, its victory in the Altenburg district was the sole exception, where the AfD candidate led the contestant. Thuringia's SPD state chairman Georg Maier intimated that his party might support CDU nominees in the upcoming elections. The AfD confronted a dead-end in honorary mayor contests. The Erfurt political scientist André Brodocz assessed: "The AfD seems more captivating through its slogans than its personnel." He pointed out that even Höcke failed to trump the party in popularity survey results.

Thuringia's AfD co-chairman Stefan Möller voiced dissatisfaction. "I'd have desired a more advantageous platform," he told the dpa. The party labored under adverse circumstances and faced long-term criticism. Yet, political scientist Oliver Lembcke deemed that the AfD's troubles surfaced due to negative publicity associated with candidates for the European race: "The AfD has mismanaged public opinion over the past few weeks, creating a less favorable profile."

A toehold in municipal assemblies

Nonetheless, the situation alters when examining elections for municipal parliaments, comprising district councils and city councils. Here, the party showcased a marked improvement and reached 26.1% nationwide, just below the CDU's 27.4%. In ten districts and free cities, they either headed the race or were nearly there. For instance, they captured 34.7% in Sonneberg, where the AfD's Robert Sesselmann leads as district administrator.

Lembcke contends that this strength within the local assemblies instigates repercussions for forming parliamentary majorities: "It will be increasingly complex to sidestep them, in some cases it may not even be achievable." This AfD influence in local governments could modify mid-term dynamics, according to Brodocz, potentially transmogrifying the theme of the wall to an impediment for the CDU. Brodocz surmised that the wall motif had lost relevance locally, "on the local level, it has mostly been abandoned."

The CDU retains a leading position in municipal politics

Despite a generational transition, the CDU upheld its status as a municipal force, winning mayoral contests in Suhl and Weimar. CDU candidate Andreas Horn edged past SPD incumbent Andreas Bausewein in Erfurt, with the decision being made in the runoff election. The majority of the runoff elections pitted the CDU against the AfD. These could be seen as precursors to the CDU top candidate, Mario Voigt's, contest against Höcke, Brodocz added. The Minister President, Bodo Ramelow (Left), will influence the outcome through his office prerogatives - leading a coalition with the SPD and Greens.

Ramelow's Left Party experienced significant setbacks in the elections to city and district assemblies. The SPD, Greens, and FDP succumbed to voter share losses in the municipal parliaments. However, the SPD triumphed in landing one Landrat slot, while harboring a position in three elections. In Jena, the Greens and FDP are locked in a mayoral tussle.

Emergence of Wagenknecht Alliance as a potent force

Brodocz highlighted the inaugural feat of the Wagenknecht Alliance BSW in regional elections as noteworthy. It had a sporadic presence, yet secured scores ranging from 7 to 12%. With a statewide appearance in the upcoming election, the movement could trigger the most profound transformations. "The BSW could provoke the most dramatic shifts in September's election."

Despite indicating a part-time role, the BSW contested four district council races and fielded five contenders for mayoral and city council posts. In Greiz, Gotha, and the Wartburg district, the new party manufactured surprises by scoring ten-figure percentages, doing the same in the Sonneberg district with 7.6%. In Bleicherode, the BSW candidate Robert Henning secured the mayoral position in the Nordhausen district.

In the Hildburghausen district, there was a buzz around a neo-Nazi's performance in the Landrat runoff elections. Tommy Frenck managed to score 24.9% of the votes, making it into the final round. Nonetheless, the other contender, Sven Gregor with 42.4%, is expected to emerge victorious. There was no candidate representing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in this race. The local neo-Nazi group "Future Hildburghausen" (BZH), led by Frenck, was identified as the leading neo-Nazi group in the area by the Constitutional Protection Report 2022. He gained popularity due to his efforts in organizing a series of large neo-Nazi concerts, which attracted extremists from various European nations.

The voter turnout for the Landrat and mayoral elections stood at a noteworthy 62.9%, surpassing the previous 47.1% seen in 2018.