Fact check - Can France simply cut off our electricity?
France's far-right parties are a thorn in the eye when it comes to electricity exports to Europe. With the Rassemblement National (RN) becoming the third strongest force in the results of the advanced parliamentary elections, is there going to be a let-up? The Left sees the issue similarly, with the new Left alliance, La France Insoumise, having just won. Germany would be directly affected by electricity imports. How high are these? And: Is France's exit from the European electricity market realistic?
Claim
France can cut electricity supplies to Germany.
Assessment
This is not that simple.
Facts
The main concern of the people in France and the most important topic in election campaigns is purchasing power. The far-right National Front, as well as the Left Party La France Insoumise and the Communists, regularly call for an exit from the European electricity market and suggest that France could cheaply supply itself with its own atomic power and a fixed tariff - people would therefore have more money in their wallets.
Le Pen had also threatened that European harmonized electricity prices were disadvantaging French industry, which would have to pay more because Germany, due to its nuclear phase-out, was facing supply problems. The head of the Rassemblement National, Jordan Bardella, is currently demanding an exception from European regulations on energy price setting for France. This would not mean that France would disconnect from its European partners.
Experts on France: The price of electricity goes up with exit
In the opinion of experts, including Jean-Pierre Clamadieu, President of the energy company Engie, and Patrice Geoffron, Professor of Economics at the Université Paris Dauphine, France is dependent on the continuous exchange of electricity in the European network, even if it exports more than it imports. In the event of an exit from the European electricity market, there is a risk of power outages, and France would have to invest massively in additional power plants, which would drive up the price of electricity, experts say. France also earns significant revenue from electricity exports, so it would make little sense to restrict these.
An exception from European regulations on energy price setting that France could theoretically negotiate with the EU; Portugal and Spain had such an exception during the energy crisis. However, experts consider this impractical for France due to the importance of the European electricity market for France. If France completely left the European electricity market, it would be breaching European agreements and contracts. In practice, this would only be possible if France simply stopped implementing European agreements. This would result in sanctions from Brussels.
France and Germany are so-called electricity transit countries within the EU. This means that electricity is continuously imported and exported and passed on to where it is needed within the European Union. The common electricity market in Europe is intended to enable savings and the reduction of emissions through joint cooperation with other countries.
Concrete Numbers for Germany: According to the data of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), Germany supplied around 26.2 Terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity to other European countries up until July 8th of this year. On the other hand, Germany received 38.3 TWh from its neighbors.
For comparison: The public net electricity generation in Germany (excluding self-consumption by industry) amounts to approximately 234 TWh in the same time period. Of this, nearly five percent is accounted for by electricity imports.
Going Back and Forth between France and Germany
A look at the electricity exchange between neighboring countries reveals that, according to Fraunhofer data, Germany has imported more electricity from France than it has exported to France up until July 8th of this year. The data shows that Germany received 8.44 TWh from France and exported 1.62 TWh. France is therefore one of the largest, if not the largest, electricity exporters to Germany this year. Denmark currently ranks just above France with 8.6 TWh of electricity exported to Germany.
However, data from the German Bundestag shows that the situation can also be reversed: Between the end of November 2022 and the end of November 2023, Germany exported 14.2 TWh of electricity to France and imported 12 TWh in the opposite direction.
Fraunhofer Data on Public Net Electricity Generation 2024 Germany as a Transit Country German Bundestag on German-French Energy Cooperation Fraunhofer Data on Cross-border Electricity Trade
- France's exit from the European electricity market, as suggested by parties like the Rassemblement National and La France Insoumise, could lead to power outages due to its dependency on the European network for electricity exchange.
- Experts, such as Jean-Pierre Clamadieu and Patrice Geoffron, argue that France's departure from the European electricity market would result in significant increases in electricity prices due to the need for additional power plants.
- Germany would be directly affected by any electricity imports from France, given its reliance on continuous imports and exports within the European Union.
- Jordan Bardella, the head of the Rassemblement National, is demanding an exception from European regulations on energy price setting for France, arguing that it would not mean disconnecting from European partners.
- The Left in France, including La France Insoumise and the Communists, regularly campaign for an exit from the European electricity market, citing the potential for France to supply itself with its own atomic power and a fixed tariff for lower consumer costs.
- France earns significant revenue from electricity exports, making it unlikely for the country to restrict these exports even with an exception from European regulations.
- Both France and Germany are considered electricity transit countries within the EU, continuously importing and exporting electricity between each other and other European nations, with the goal of savings and emissions reduction through joint cooperation.
