"Bulletproof and anti-design have the makings of a myth"
Four years after presenting his first electric pickup model, Elon Musk hands over ten futuristic stainless steel trucks to their buyers. He is a long way from volume production of his Cybertruck. ntv.de talks to car expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer from the Bochum-based CAR Center Automotive Research about the electric truck's chances on the US market, the costs and what drives Elon Musk.
ntv.de: Tesla is undisputedly the big e-car pioneer. But its lead in the market has shrunk as competition has increased. Can the Cybertruck put Tesla back ahead?
Ferdinand Dudenhöffer: Musk's idea was to dominate the American electric car market with the Cybertruck. Pickups are the ultimate in America. They are sold in large numbers. At the same time, he was betting on electromobility in the USA. However, problems are now emerging here. E-mobility in the USA is not going quite as well as he thought. Unlike combustion pickups, electric pickups do not sell well in America. Buyers are generally older and conservative drivers who are not so quick to switch to electric mobility.
E-mobility could also become less important if Joe Biden is not re-elected and Trump becomes president of the USA. Trump is an oil man, and Americans would follow him because combustion engines are cheaper. This is a political risk that Musk could not have foreseen years ago when the idea for the Cybertruck was born. So Elon Musk now has both a market risk and a political risk.
Musk has even more problems. There is the price: a mid-range model costs 61,000 US dollars - before taxes, discounts and subsidies. The planned price was 40,000 dollars. Who can afford that?
Musk has set the price high because he is only selling a few cars at the beginning. These are one-offs. When supply is tight, you can ask a higher price. Musk has his fans, so it wasn't a bad idea for him to set the price so high. I think if he really gets the production process right, the price will be around 50,000 dollars. Then the Cybertruck will take off.
How can this vehicle with its special features be affordable and economical?
That depends on the production process. For the Model 3, Musk is working with a huge aluminum die-casting machine, which gives him great cost advantages for large volumes. We haven't seen anything like that with the Cybertruck yet. But Elon Musk wouldn't be Elon Musk if he didn't have a concept up his sleeve that he wants to implement in order to go into large-scale production. He needs a production technology that is significantly cheaper. Today, individual cars are welded together, which is a far cry from cost efficiency. But that is exactly what the market needs.
The long start-up phase would be the next problem. The majority of prospective buyers still have to wait for their Cybertruck. Only around ten trucks were handed over on Thursday. It will take until 2025 before Musk can produce the so-called light truck in quantities of 250,000 per year. What does this delay mean?
The fact that the Cybertruck is coming later is not a problem. Delays have never hurt Elon Musk. Customers know that Elon Musk's deadlines are soft. This means that he has financing costs in his investment plan for the Cybertruck that were not budgeted for. But that won't upset Tesla. He can cope with this upfront financing or the additional losses he may incur. The bigger problem for him could be getting the production process right in the first place so that he can build 250,000 Cybertrucks per year. And in a cost-efficient way. That is the big open question.
Musk himself has set himself a price target that should be affordable for many people. Is that realistic, given the material alone?
I don't think anyone can answer this question today because no one knows his planned production process. What Musk is doing today looks like one-off production. Ten cars delivered, that's niche production. That's Ferrari, but not Tesla. The product problems with the stainless steel body, the fact that the price is far removed from what was originally intended and that only one-offs are produced, that's all a burden. But overall, we know too little about its cost and production structure. That is a great uncertainty. The product is completely different from what he imagined. Can he get it right? Something could go wrong. On the other hand, you can't rule out the possibility that it will work.
You have to understand the product first. A material that is ultra-hard and doesn't need to be painted, resistant to dents. That sounds reasonable. But bulletproof? That seems a bit absurd. What do you need a car like that for?
With Elon Musk, you have to know that he doesn't follow others, but wants to set his own trends. And he can only set his own trends if he has his own pickup. It's not a standard pickup. The standard pickup is something like the Ford Series 150. Recreating something like that is not Elon Musk's thing. His thing is to make something that triggers aha effects. That's exactly what this new or unusual design, which is more of an anti-design, is supposed to do. Bulletproofing is all the rage. In America, a 16-year-old can buy a machine gun. The attitude towards weapons is different from ours. I think Musk has addressed the issue well. Nobody else has bulletproofing. He can use it to build a myth.
Musk is convinced that his Cybertruck will change the streetscape of the future. Can you imagine that?
If he can realize his plans and the Cybertruck is available for, say, 50,000 dollars, I can imagine that he will set a trend with this anti-design that he has created. Americans are quick to jump on trends, which could make the Cybertruck a success. However, it is difficult to estimate how big this chance is. But please don't rule it out. Elon Musk has always been good for surprises. He fights like a lion. And he works like a madman on these things. And it has been shown time and again that he has realized things that no one believed in.
Will we also see the Cybertruck on other world markets in the future?
Selling the truck in Europe is nonsense, and in my opinion in China too. Musk has to play the game in North America, in the USA and Canada. I don't want to rule out that he will succeed. But he is facing major problems, that has to be said quite clearly. He has to get series production off the ground and the promotion of electromobility in America must not stop, then he has a good chance of making the Cybertruck a success.
Diana Dittmer spoke with Ferdinand Dudenhöffer
Ferdinand Dudenhöffer mentioned that Elon Musk aimed to dominate the American electric car market with the Cybertruck, but e-mobility in the USA isn't progressing as quicky as Musk anticipated. Tesla Motors' lead in the market has decreased due to increased competition, and Electric pickups, like the Cybertruck, do not sell well in America. (Ferdinand Dudenhöffer)
Elon Musk's Cybertruck, with its unique features, could be both affordable and economical if Elon Musk can figure out a more cost-efficient production process, reducing the need for welding and increasing the use of aluminum die-casting. (Ferdinand Dudenhöffer)
Source: www.ntv.de
