Black Friday: Are there attractive discounts in a year of crisis?
The countdown is on. Websites such as www.blackfriday.de are already counting down the hours until the big day. Black Friday falls on November 24 this year and marks the start of Black Week.
However, the campaign has actually already begun, and in many cases has been running for half of November. Amazon, Otto, Saturn and other retailers have introduced a Black Friday pre-sale and offer reduced prices on games consoles, computers, washing machines, coffee machines and much more a week or two in advance.
Retailers stage Black Friday as a glittering celebration of consumerism, but the omens are not good this year. The name of the day of action, which commemorates the collapse of the New York Stock Exchange in 1929, is unintentionally topical. Pandemic, wars, inflation: retailers are particularly reliant on high sales after the difficult years, but many people are not in a buying mood. Can the campaign still be a success?
Men want to spend more than women
The potential is huge. According to a representative survey by management consultants PwC, 70 percent of Germans want to look for specific offers on the days surrounding Black Friday. They intend to spend an average of 281 euros, which is eight euros less than last year. At 331 euros, men are significantly more willing to spend than women (234 euros). According to market researchers from NielsenIQ, consumers in Germany spent more money last year than in France, the UK, Italy or Spain.
Black Friday has its origins in the USA. There, the day after Thanksgiving, the fourth Thursday in November, marks the start of the Christmas shopping season. The Black Friday brand was trademarked in Germany in 2013, has grown continuously and is now firmly established. For retailers, Black Friday is the most important sales event of the year alongside Christmas, and the fourth quarter is the strongest in terms of sales.
Retail expert Martin Fassnacht from the WHU business school sees the pressure this year as being particularly on the retailers' side. He expects particularly large price reductions. "Retailers will have to do more convincing because people are a bit stingy at the moment. That's why the discounts have to be particularly good."
For retailers, preparations for Black Friday start when customers are far from thinking about it. The mail order giant Otto starts planning in late summer. Together with logistics partners, daily forecasts are drawn up and order volumes are estimated in order to plan how many vehicles and temporary staff are needed, according to a company spokeswoman. Compared to normal times, four times the storage capacity is required.
DHL expects eleven million shipments
The discount campaigns are keeping the parcel industry's order books full. Market leader DHL expects to transport more than eleven million shipments on some days in the week following Black Friday. The volume of shipments is therefore 50 percent higher than the weekly average for the year to date.
According to a survey by the IFH Cologne retail research institute, one in three people intend to spend less this year than last year. The German Retail Association expects sales of 5.8 billion euros on the days surrounding Black Friday - that would be an increase of three percent. In 2022, sales had increased by 20 percent compared to the previous year. "Retailers can't do without the day. But Black Friday won't be able to save this year. The consumer climate is too bad for that," says retail expert Gerrit Heinemann from the Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences.
Nevertheless, for many people the prospect of buying at least some of their Christmas presents four weeks before the festive season is tempting. 71 percent of Germans want to use the bargain days in the PwC survey for this purpose. According to the survey, electronic devices (40 percent) and clothing (33 percent) are particularly popular. According to the survey, the discount must be at least 38 percent to be particularly good.
74 percent want to buy online
Shortly before November 24, it is almost impossible to miss Black Friday. The large video boards on the main roads in cities have been advertising the bargains for days. Online retailers are once again ahead of the game this year. According to the PwC study, 74% want to go shopping online and only 24% offline and in-store. Nevertheless, traditional retail has its advantages. The consumer advice center warns of an increased risk of falling for a dubious online store on campaign days.
Experts see the danger of a buying frenzy due to the large number of offers. Online retailers use red bars, for example, which supposedly indicate melting stocks or expiring watches to put buyers under pressure. The consumer advice center advises consumers to set price limits, use price comparison portals and keep a cool head.
However, consumers have at least one advantage on Black Friday. They can simply ignore the bargain day and its hype if necessary. This is much more difficult for retailers. They can hardly afford to boycott the campaign, says expert Fassnacht.
Source: www.dpa.com
