At his robo-taxi demonstration, does Musk utilize more illumination from artificial candles than just producing a mist-like effect?
Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, has long been envisioning self-driving cars, and he's finally preparing to unveil a prototype of a driverless robotaxi in Los Angeles. Though Musk is known for his flair and bold promises, skepticism abounds among industry experts. With competitors surging ahead, the success of this ambitious project remains uncertain.
In a grand reveal at Warner Brothers Studios near LA, Musk will present the initial prototype of an AI-powered robotaxi on the 19th (7 PM Pacific Time). Tech enthusiasts have been buzzing with the slogan, "We, robot," as the anticipation for Musk's AI magic grows. But many wonder if this dream of a steering-wheel-free, pedal-less wonder car will actualize, or if it's another Musk spectacle.
The Tesla front-runner has been under intense scrutiny due to his company's waning fortune. The last model launch, the Cybertruck pickup, occurred in 2019. Musk has been promising self-driving Teslas since 2016, and yet, the automotive industry has moved swiftly on. Electric mobility is no longer a novelty, and autonomous driving is a complex domain, marred with high regulatory hurdles and insufficient camera technology. In this intricate landscape, Tesla has found itself lagging behind. Investors and fans are impatiently waiting to witness how Musk navigates these challenges and upgrades his rudimentary driving aid software, "Full Self Driving," into more.
Level 5 self-driving remains a distant desire
As a leading voice in the industry, Frank Schwope expresses doubts, "I don't anticipate anything groundbreaking, more of a spectacle with grandeur and optical illusions." He warns that, just because a robotaxi operates within the studios, it doesn't mean a Level 5 autonomous vehicle will hit the streets. Even Waymo, the world's frontrunner in fully automated driving, hasn't accomplished this feat yet.
Waymo, an Alphabet subsidiary, already deploys driverless robotaxis in four US states and conducts over 100,000 journeys weekly. Level 4 autonomous taxis operate in San Francisco, but these aren't capable of handling all complex urban terrains and weather conditions. It's only at Level 5 that cars can competently navigate the challenges of city roads and climatic variations. Unsurprisingly, Schwope doubts that anyone can crack this code in the following decade.
Conversely, Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a renowned auto expert, predicts that Musk will unveil a robotaxi employing LiDAR technology instead of cameras. According to Dudenhöffer, LiDAR is a necessity for autonomous driving, and Musk's integration of it will place Tesla at Level 4. This may not be a revolutionary leap, but any improvement in US automaker's standing is certainly a victory.
Currently, a Tesla can only drive autonomously in the right lane and maintain distance from other vehicles in traffic congestion. Several automakers have already surpassed this. Mercedes and BMW provide systems for Level 3 driving, which allows vehicles to independently maintain lane, distance, and speed while allowing drivers to take their hands off the wheel and eyes off the road in certain situations, including heavy traffic below 60 mph. Thus, drivers can engage in activities like reading or shopping. Schwope hypothesizes that an over-the-air update, possibly incorporating optical LiDAR technology, is also likely. "In light of this, Musk can't depend solely on camera systems," he articulates, adding that a combination is plausible.
Analyst Konstantin Oldenburger foresees the possibility of Tesla showcasing a product surpassing its existing capabilities during the Cybertruck Day, potentially cementing Tesla's leadership in the autonomous vehicle arena. Oldenburger opines that this would be another "stepping stone towards fully autonomous driving."
Regardless of the scale of Tesla's surprise, current Tesla owners may be disappointed. Musk initially promised that all Tesla owners would eventually transition into paid robotaxi providers. However, the feasibility of this pledge is diminishing with each passing year as present-day Teslas are becoming obsolete. Older models will become incompatible for updates or retrofits related to autonomous driving. Consequently, Dudenhöffer assumes that Musk will use advanced chips in the new robotaxi to stay competitive, "Musk will provide up-to-date technology. Any other approach would harm Tesla's stock price."
It's yet to be determined if Tesla will leave a lasting impact with today's presentation. There are numerous unresolved issues: Will Musk secure authorization for the vehicle? Can he produce profits and restore stability to the business? According to Dudenhoffer, Musk probably won't divulge all his secrets: "He'll display the technology, but he won't specify when he'll introduce the vehicle to the market." One thing is clear: Musk can't afford to drop the ball. "If it bombs, he'll crumble," predicts the specialist. "With electric vehicles, he's not breaking new ground. They're outdated and harder to sell. Musk is up against stiff competition from BYD and other carmakers. In terms of innovation, he's been quite stale lately. He needs to take a major leap, and that leap is into the realm of robotaxis. But whether this move is financially sound remains to be seen."
This situation presents a challenge for investors, according to market analyst Oldenburger. "The project is far from straightforward, but it's been a foolish choice to bet against Musk and Tesla," he says. Much like how new iterations of the iPhone capture attention despite lacking groundbreaking tech, Musk doesn't necessarily have to revolutionize things. "A move in the right direction and technological advancements should be enough to capture investors' interest." There's no better venue for this than Hollywood, where films like Harry Potter and Star Wars were created.
Despite facing criticism and skepticism from industry experts, Elon Musk presses on with his plans for Tesla's self-driving cars. In the face of competitors like Waymo already deploying driverless robotaxis, Musk is set to unveil a prototype of his AI-powered robotaxi in Los Angeles.
As the presentation of the driverless robotaxi approaches, analysts predict that Musk will incorporate LiDAR technology into Tesla's design to enhance its autonomous driving capabilities, potentially placing Tesla at Level 4.
