- Assessment: CDU in Saxony gains favor through Kretschmer and talents.
CDU's Victory in Saxony Elections Due to Kretschmer's Leadership and Skills, Poll Suggests
According to a poll analysis, the CDU's victory in the state elections in Saxony is thanks to Michael Kretschmer, their Minister President, and the credibility he brings. The CDU's election result is attributed to "a combination of a popular candidate, competent leadership, and a desire for CDU government," as per the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen research group. On the other hand, the AfD and BSW have had success "with lesser involvement of their own," the poll analysis suggests.
Kretschmer's Popularity remains High
Kretschmer may have experienced a slight dip, but he still has a positive score of +1.7 out of +5/-5 (2019: +2.3). His opponent from the AfD, Jörg Urban, however, has a negative image at -1.1 (2019: -0.8). A majority of 72% of Saxons approve of Kretschmer's performance. The pollsters conclude that 65% of Saxons want Kretschmer as their leader, while only 23% prefer Urban.
AfD and BSW Lacking in Self-Qualities
The AfD and BSW are said to show little of their own qualities, according to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. Apart from the topics of refugees and Ukraine/Russia, both have profited from "historically low satisfaction with the traffic light coalition and weaknesses of the CDU/CSU opposition in the federal government." Within the AfD, there is a significant distance from established politics in the Free State. For 54% of all citizens, the AfD is seen as a threat to democracy.
CDU, SPD, Left, Greens, and BSW with Weak Competency Values
The AfD is highly rated in terms of competence in the area of foreigners/asylum, now surpassing the CDU in this regard. The SPD performs well in the field of social justice but is weak in terms of party competencies, along with the Left, Greens, and BSW. The CDU leads in the areas of education, future, and economy. If the AfD were to form part of the government, 51% fear negative consequences for the economic situation in Saxony.
Majority Opposes AfD's Role in the Next Government
A majority of Saxons are against the AfD's participation in the next state government. 57% find AfD's involvement detrimental, while only 37% find it positive, and 4% remain neutral. Opinions on the BSW alliance are divided: 38% find an involvement positive, 34% negative, and 20% neutral. If given a choice between the CDU and the AfD leading the next government, 64% of all Saxons would choose the CDU, and only 31% would choose the AfD, the pollsters conclude.
Men More Likely to Vote for AfD
The analysis reveals that more men than women support the AfD. The AfD is particularly successful among all those under 60 with lower educational qualifications. On the contrary, the CDU performs better among women and those over 60. In this age group, the CDU achieves 42%, while among those under 30, it only gets 15%.
Despite the AfD's success in certain areas and lower satisfaction with the CDU/CSU in the federal government, the poll suggests that the CDU's victory in Saxony elections is largely due to Kretschmer's leadership and popularity. Interestingly, the AfD is perceived as lacking in self-qualities and is viewed as a threat to democracy by a majority of Saxons, making it less appealing for leading the next government.
