- Assessment: Advantage Derived from the Tarnished Image of Other Parties (AfD)
The AfD gains from its election victory in Thuringia, as per election experts, due to a drop in reputation for most parties and widespread unhappiness towards the federal and regional administrations. The discontent towards the minority red-red-green government in Thuringia is at an all-time high, as noted by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in their analysis of the regional election. The administration of Thuringia's Minister President Bodo Ramelow (Left) scores a negative 0.8 on the +5/-5 scale.
Even the opposition's performance is subject to criticism. "Only the AfD sees a slight improvement in its image, but it remains negative (-1.4). The BSW manages a relatively decent score (0.1) initially," the analysis adds.
Key Concerns: Immigration and Education
62% of AfD voters chose to support the party due to its political standpoints - 32% mainly as a form of protest. Dissatisfaction in Thuringia isn't confined to state politics. The federal government garners a score of -2.2, the lowest at a state election, according to election researchers. When asked which party prioritizes the concerns of Eastern Germans, no parties from the federal government were considered in the survey.
The study identifies "refugees/asylum" and "education and schools" as the most significant issues of the election. Notably, the AfD enjoys significantly more trust in immigration policy with 34% compared to all other parties. In education policy, the AfD trails behind the CDU slightly, which also enjoys the most trust in economic policy, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen states.
Ramelow's popularity wanes
Respondents were asked about their preferred Minister President, with 60% expressing support for Incumbent Ramelow - however, this is below average compared to other state leaders. His popularity has decreased since 2019, with a score of +0.8 (previously 1.6), the analysis reveals.
CDU challenger Mario Voigt receives a score of 0.0, Katja Wolf from the BSW scores 0.4, and AfD top candidate Björn Höcke scores a negative 2.0. "61% still view Höcke as a 'threat to democracy'," writes the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.
Thuringia residents are divided on who should lead the future government: 33% mention the CDU, 26% the AfD, 20% the Left, and 12% the BSW.
The AfD's success is primarily due to male voters
The success of the AfD in the state election is chiefly due to male voters. "Among female voters, the AfD receives 28%, among male voters it receives 39%," the election researchers note. The party has a strong appeal to men under the age of 60, with 43%. Conversely, the CDU performs well among voters over 60 (31%).
The federal government's poor performance in Thuringia's election contributes to the AfD's gain, as they score the lowest at a state election with -2.2. Additionally, the federal government is not considered to prioritize the concerns of Eastern Germans, based on the survey results.
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